Fantasy World Cup Football 2026 - Modelling Back to main site

Generated from team event probabilities · 2026-07-17 07:27:19 UTC

Group Stage

Fixtures 72
Teams 48
Top team Spain 113.11
Highest xG fixture 4.32 2026-06-14 17:00 Germany vs Curaçao

Legend

Score
Weighted team-level fantasy opportunity index. In the team ranking it is summed across that team's three group fixtures. In the fixture ranking it is the two teams' fixture scores added together.
xG
Expected goals derived from team goal-total betting markets.
CS
Expected clean sheets. This is the sum of clean-sheet probabilities across group fixtures in the team table, and a single-fixture probability in detail panels.
xGC
Expected goals conceded, using the opponent's expected goals distribution.
Assists
Expected team assists, estimated from expected goals using the model's assisted-goal rate.
Risk
Card-risk index: expected yellow cards plus two times expected red cards. It reflects fantasy card penalties only, not goals conceded, own goals, or penalties conceded.
Fixture Score
Home team Score plus away team Score for that fixture, intended to rank fixtures by total fantasy event opportunity rather than just expected goals.
Score Formula
Uses expected goals, assists, clean sheets, penalties won/saved, free-kick goals, save/shot/tackle/chance bonuses, then subtracts card risk, own goals, penalties conceded, and additional goals conceded.

Team Ranking Preview: Top 5 + Bottom 5

RankTeamScorexGActual GF/GACSxGCAssistsRisk
1 Spain 113.11 7.92 5 / 0 1.74 1.89 7.18 2.99
2 Germany 111.61 7.96 10 / 4 1.41 2.64 7.22 3.52
3 France 107.62 7.60 10 / 2 1.44 2.43 6.87 3.63
4 England 102.76 7.15 6 / 2 1.55 2.20 6.46 2.70
5 Brazil 100.72 7.03 7 / 1 1.56 2.12 6.35 4.39
44 Haiti 43.42 2.21 2 / 8 0.30 7.90 1.99 6.33
45 Qatar 42.45 2.18 2 / 10 0.35 7.06 1.96 6.33
46 Uzbekistan 42.14 2.14 2 / 11 0.46 6.40 1.93 5.87
47 Iraq 42.07 1.92 1 / 12 0.24 8.23 1.73 5.48
48 Curaçao 40.01 1.78 1 / 9 0.21 9.14 1.60 6.12
Expand full team ranking
RankTeamScorexGActual GF/GACSxGCAssistsRisk
1 Spain 113.11 7.92 5 / 0 1.74 1.89 7.18 2.99
2 Germany 111.61 7.96 10 / 4 1.41 2.64 7.22 3.52
3 France 107.62 7.60 10 / 2 1.44 2.43 6.87 3.63
4 England 102.76 7.15 6 / 2 1.55 2.20 6.46 2.70
5 Brazil 100.72 7.03 7 / 1 1.56 2.12 6.35 4.39
6 Belgium 99.75 6.95 6 / 2 1.38 2.53 6.28 4.03
7 Portugal 96.80 6.70 6 / 1 1.47 2.52 6.05 3.70
8 Argentina 96.13 6.59 8 / 1 1.62 2.04 5.94 3.45
9 Netherlands 93.46 6.48 10 / 4 1.31 2.78 5.85 3.61
10 Switzerland 84.82 5.65 7 / 3 1.38 2.59 5.09 4.13
11 Morocco 79.31 5.12 6 / 3 1.27 3.09 4.62 4.60
12 Norway 77.88 4.96 8 / 7 1.03 4.16 4.47 3.70
13 USA 77.25 5.08 8 / 4 1.11 3.15 4.58 4.86
14 Colombia 76.75 5.03 4 / 1 1.23 3.09 4.53 4.42
15 Canada 76.42 4.94 8 / 3 1.24 2.88 4.45 5.06
16 Ecuador 75.71 4.77 2 / 2 1.19 3.49 4.30 5.11
17 Ivory Coast 75.45 4.72 4 / 2 1.05 3.96 4.26 4.83
18 Mexico 75.02 4.98 6 / 0 1.32 2.65 4.49 4.49
19 Senegal 72.93 4.63 8 / 6 0.90 4.29 4.17 5.44
20 Uruguay 71.80 4.50 3 / 4 1.30 2.89 4.05 5.18
21 Japan 71.67 4.56 7 / 3 1.12 3.35 4.11 4.13
22 Croatia 71.26 4.55 5 / 5 1.07 3.43 4.10 4.54
23 Türkiye 69.51 4.46 3 / 5 0.97 3.84 4.01 5.06
24 Bosnia & Herzegovina 64.79 4.07 5 / 6 0.85 4.29 3.66 6.22
25 Austria 64.21 3.78 6 / 6 1.07 3.61 3.41 5.26
26 Egypt 63.45 3.77 5 / 3 1.03 3.67 3.39 5.14
27 South Korea 63.06 3.96 2 / 3 1.04 3.49 3.56 5.07
28 Sweden 61.77 3.80 7 / 7 0.80 4.54 3.42 4.89
29 Algeria 61.50 3.61 5 / 7 1.05 3.65 3.25 5.00
30 Scotland 60.04 3.56 1 / 4 0.74 4.81 3.21 5.62
31 Czechia 59.86 3.75 2 / 6 0.92 3.85 3.37 5.53
32 Iran 57.58 3.25 3 / 3 0.95 4.05 2.92 4.92
33 Paraguay 54.93 3.06 2 / 4 0.96 3.74 2.75 6.06
34 Congo DR 52.75 2.97 4 / 3 0.77 4.84 2.67 4.97
35 Ghana 51.24 2.75 2 / 2 0.71 5.15 2.47 4.96
36 Australia 50.20 2.72 2 / 2 0.72 4.59 2.45 5.55
37 New Zealand 49.79 2.59 4 / 10 0.48 6.31 2.33 4.95
38 Panama 49.71 2.64 0 / 4 0.50 6.31 2.38 5.24
39 Saudi Arabia 48.19 2.46 1 / 5 0.53 6.25 2.21 5.77
40 Cape Verde Islands 47.05 2.40 2 / 2 0.54 6.26 2.16 5.41
41 Jordan 46.38 2.05 3 / 8 0.38 6.73 1.84 5.18
42 South Africa 44.85 2.39 2 / 3 0.60 5.09 2.15 6.64
43 Tunisia 44.65 2.23 2 / 12 0.47 6.40 2.01 5.59
44 Haiti 43.42 2.21 2 / 8 0.30 7.90 1.99 6.33
45 Qatar 42.45 2.18 2 / 10 0.35 7.06 1.96 6.33
46 Uzbekistan 42.14 2.14 2 / 11 0.46 6.40 1.93 5.87
47 Iraq 42.07 1.92 1 / 12 0.24 8.23 1.73 5.48
48 Curaçao 40.01 1.78 1 / 9 0.21 9.14 1.60 6.12

Top 4 Team Detail

Highest Scoring Fixtures

RankFixtureMDHomeAwayxGResultActual goalsScoreRisk
1 2026-06-14 17:00 Germany vs Curaçao MD1 Germany Curaçao 4.32 Germany 7-1 Curaçao 8 61.94 2.85
2 2026-06-27 03:00 New Zealand vs Belgium MD3 New Zealand Belgium 3.93 New Zealand 1-5 Belgium 6 57.65 2.64
3 2026-06-22 21:00 France vs Iraq MD2 France Iraq 3.80 France 3-0 Iraq 3 57.25 2.75
4 2026-06-20 00:30 Brazil vs Haiti MD2 Brazil Haiti 3.77 Brazil 3-0 Haiti 3 56.67 3.06
5 2026-06-15 16:00 Spain vs Cape Verde Islands MD1 Spain Cape Verde Islands 3.73 Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands 0 55.72 2.72
6 2026-06-21 16:00 Spain vs Saudi Arabia MD2 Spain Saudi Arabia 3.67 Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia 4 55.62 2.60
7 2026-06-27 21:00 Panama vs England MD3 Panama England 3.56 Panama 0-2 England 2 53.75 2.74
8 2026-06-25 23:00 Tunisia vs Netherlands MD3 Tunisia Netherlands 3.54 Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands 4 54.32 2.35
9 2026-06-25 20:00 Curaçao vs Ivory Coast MD3 Curaçao Ivory Coast 3.43 Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast 2 54.08 2.97
10 2026-06-23 17:00 Portugal vs Uzbekistan MD2 Portugal Uzbekistan 3.38 Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan 5 50.65 3.15
11 2026-06-26 19:00 Norway vs France MD3 Norway France 3.29 Norway 1-4 France 5 51.35 2.27
12 2026-06-28 02:00 Jordan vs Argentina MD3 Jordan Argentina 3.27 Jordan 1-3 Argentina 4 52.82 2.50
13 2026-06-24 22:00 Morocco vs Haiti MD3 Morocco Haiti 3.25 Morocco 4-2 Haiti 6 51.15 2.65
14 2026-06-26 19:00 Senegal vs Iraq MD3 Senegal Iraq 3.25 Senegal 5-0 Iraq 5 50.22 3.03
15 2026-06-20 20:00 Germany vs Ivory Coast MD2 Germany Ivory Coast 3.22 Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast 3 49.71 3.37
16 2026-06-24 19:00 Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar MD3 Bosnia & Herzegovina Qatar 3.22 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar 4 47.79 3.89
17 2026-06-23 20:00 England vs Ghana MD2 England Ghana 3.22 England 0-0 Ghana 0 50.00 2.64
18 2026-06-21 00:00 Ecuador vs Curaçao MD2 Ecuador Curaçao 3.17 Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao 0 50.80 3.49
19 2026-06-26 02:00 Türkiye vs USA MD3 Türkiye USA 3.17 Türkiye 3-2 USA 5 48.76 2.75
20 2026-06-20 17:00 Netherlands vs Sweden MD2 Netherlands Sweden 3.11 Netherlands 5-1 Sweden 6 47.06 3.08
21 2026-06-16 22:00 Iraq vs Norway MD1 Iraq Norway 3.10 Iraq 1-4 Norway 5 49.82 3.01
22 2026-06-14 01:00 Haiti vs Scotland MD1 Haiti Scotland 3.09 Haiti 0-1 Scotland 1 46.15 4.18
23 2026-06-25 20:00 Ecuador vs Germany MD3 Ecuador Germany 3.06 Ecuador 2-1 Germany 3 48.71 2.83
24 2026-06-13 19:00 Qatar vs Switzerland MD1 Qatar Switzerland 3.06 Qatar 1-1 Switzerland 2 46.82 3.44
25 2026-06-23 23:00 Panama vs Croatia MD2 Panama Croatia 3.05 Panama 0-1 Croatia 1 48.08 2.96
26 2026-06-18 22:00 Canada vs Qatar MD2 Canada Qatar 2.97 Canada 6-0 Qatar 6 47.32 3.49
27 2026-06-27 23:30 Colombia vs Portugal MD3 Colombia Portugal 2.95 Colombia 0-0 Portugal 0 46.30 3.26
28 2026-06-16 19:00 France vs Senegal MD1 France Senegal 2.94 France 3-1 Senegal 4 47.20 3.99
29 2026-06-17 17:00 Portugal vs Congo DR MD1 Portugal Congo DR 2.89 Portugal 1-1 Congo DR 2 46.07 2.80
30 2026-06-21 19:00 Belgium vs Iran MD2 Belgium Iran 2.85 Belgium 0-0 Iran 0 46.24 3.34
31 2026-06-24 22:00 Scotland vs Brazil MD3 Scotland Brazil 2.85 Scotland 0-3 Brazil 3 46.72 3.03
32 2026-06-17 04:00 Austria vs Jordan MD1 Austria Jordan 2.81 Austria 3-1 Jordan 4 47.08 3.15
33 2026-06-19 19:00 USA vs Australia MD2 USA Australia 2.77 USA 2-0 Australia 2 44.18 3.20
34 2026-06-18 19:00 Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina MD2 Switzerland Bosnia & Herzegovina 2.74 Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina 5 44.36 3.20
35 2026-06-23 00:00 Norway vs Senegal MD2 Norway Senegal 2.73 Norway 3-2 Senegal 5 44.68 3.20
36 2026-06-25 23:00 Japan vs Sweden MD3 Japan Sweden 2.73 Japan 1-1 Sweden 2 44.45 2.90
37 2026-06-18 02:00 Uzbekistan vs Colombia MD1 Uzbekistan Colombia 2.70 Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia 4 44.25 3.07
38 2026-06-15 19:00 Belgium vs Egypt MD1 Belgium Egypt 2.70 Belgium 1-1 Egypt 2 44.37 3.80
39 2026-06-23 03:00 Jordan vs Algeria MD2 Jordan Algeria 2.70 Jordan 1-2 Algeria 3 44.85 3.13
40 2026-06-22 17:00 Argentina vs Austria MD2 Argentina Austria 2.69 Argentina 2-0 Austria 2 44.32 3.30
41 2026-06-17 01:00 Argentina vs Algeria MD1 Argentina Algeria 2.67 Argentina 3-0 Algeria 3 42.88 3.91
42 2026-06-25 01:00 Czechia vs Mexico MD3 Czechia Mexico 2.66 Czechia 0-3 Mexico 3 41.62 3.23
43 2026-06-22 01:00 New Zealand vs Egypt MD2 New Zealand Egypt 2.63 New Zealand 1-3 Egypt 4 44.39 2.96
44 2026-06-14 20:00 Netherlands vs Japan MD1 Netherlands Japan 2.60 Netherlands 2-2 Japan 4 41.92 3.13
45 2026-06-14 04:00 Australia vs Türkiye MD1 Australia Türkiye 2.59 Australia 2-0 Türkiye 2 41.60 3.99
46 2026-06-21 04:00 Tunisia vs Japan MD2 Tunisia Japan 2.59 Tunisia 0-4 Japan 4 43.03 3.07
47 2026-06-17 20:00 England vs Croatia MD1 England Croatia 2.58 England 4-2 Croatia 6 42.62 2.67
48 2026-06-15 22:00 Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay MD1 Saudi Arabia Uruguay 2.55 Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay 2 42.57 4.06
49 2026-06-20 03:00 Türkiye vs Paraguay MD2 Türkiye Paraguay 2.54 Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay 1 40.79 4.52
50 2026-06-13 22:00 Brazil vs Morocco MD1 Brazil Morocco 2.53 Brazil 1-1 Morocco 2 42.51 4.17
51 2026-06-19 01:00 Mexico vs South Korea MD2 Mexico South Korea 2.51 Mexico 1-0 South Korea 1 40.38 3.36
52 2026-06-18 16:00 Czechia vs South Africa MD2 Czechia South Africa 2.51 Czechia 1-1 South Africa 2 40.23 3.64
53 2026-06-25 01:00 South Africa vs South Korea MD3 South Africa South Korea 2.51 South Africa 1-0 South Korea 1 40.90 3.24
54 2026-06-15 02:00 Sweden vs Tunisia MD1 Sweden Tunisia 2.50 Sweden 5-1 Tunisia 6 40.76 3.69
55 2026-06-27 00:00 Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia MD3 Cape Verde Islands Saudi Arabia 2.49 Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia 0 42.48 3.31
56 2026-06-24 02:00 Colombia vs Congo DR MD2 Colombia Congo DR 2.47 Colombia 1-0 Congo DR 1 41.33 3.04
57 2026-06-11 19:00 Mexico vs South Africa MD1 Mexico South Africa 2.47 Mexico 2-0 South Africa 2 40.31 4.37
58 2026-06-27 23:30 Congo DR vs Uzbekistan MD3 Congo DR Uzbekistan 2.45 Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan 4 39.83 3.65
59 2026-06-24 19:00 Switzerland vs Canada MD3 Switzerland Canada 2.44 Switzerland 2-1 Canada 3 42.15 3.23
60 2026-06-21 22:00 Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands MD2 Uruguay Cape Verde Islands 2.44 Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde Islands 4 41.54 3.40
61 2026-06-12 02:00 South Korea vs Czechia MD1 South Korea Czechia 2.43 South Korea 2-1 Czechia 3 39.34 3.88
62 2026-06-19 22:00 Scotland vs Morocco MD2 Scotland Morocco 2.43 Scotland 0-1 Morocco 1 40.28 3.86
63 2026-06-12 19:00 Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina MD1 Canada Bosnia & Herzegovina 2.41 Canada 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina 2 40.04 4.48
64 2026-06-27 00:00 Uruguay vs Spain MD3 Uruguay Spain 2.41 Uruguay 0-1 Spain 1 42.22 3.27
65 2026-06-27 21:00 Croatia vs Ghana MD3 Croatia Ghana 2.35 Croatia 2-1 Ghana 3 40.24 2.99
66 2026-06-17 23:00 Ghana vs Panama MD1 Ghana Panama 2.34 Ghana 1-0 Panama 1 40.27 3.44
67 2026-06-16 01:00 Iran vs New Zealand MD1 Iran New Zealand 2.34 Iran 2-2 New Zealand 4 40.10 3.34
68 2026-06-13 01:00 USA vs Paraguay MD1 USA Paraguay 2.30 USA 4-1 Paraguay 5 40.20 4.27
69 2026-06-27 03:00 Egypt vs Iran MD3 Egypt Iran 2.11 Egypt 1-1 Iran 2 37.83 2.94
70 2026-06-14 23:00 Ivory Coast vs Ecuador MD1 Ivory Coast Ecuador 2.03 Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador 1 37.53 4.06
71 2026-06-26 02:00 Paraguay vs Australia MD3 Paraguay Australia 1.96 Paraguay 0-0 Australia 0 36.36 2.80
72 2026-06-28 02:00 Algeria vs Austria MD3 Algeria Austria 1.89 Algeria 3-3 Austria 6 36.27 2.91

Top 5 Fixture Detail

Fixture Index

2026-06-11 19:00 Mexico vs South Africa2026-06-12 02:00 South Korea vs Czechia2026-06-12 19:00 Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina2026-06-13 01:00 USA vs Paraguay2026-06-13 19:00 Qatar vs Switzerland2026-06-13 22:00 Brazil vs Morocco2026-06-14 01:00 Haiti vs Scotland2026-06-14 04:00 Australia vs Türkiye2026-06-14 17:00 Germany vs Curaçao2026-06-14 20:00 Netherlands vs Japan2026-06-14 23:00 Ivory Coast vs Ecuador2026-06-15 02:00 Sweden vs Tunisia2026-06-15 16:00 Spain vs Cape Verde Islands2026-06-15 19:00 Belgium vs Egypt2026-06-15 22:00 Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay2026-06-16 01:00 Iran vs New Zealand2026-06-16 19:00 France vs Senegal2026-06-16 22:00 Iraq vs Norway2026-06-17 01:00 Argentina vs Algeria2026-06-17 04:00 Austria vs Jordan2026-06-17 17:00 Portugal vs Congo DR2026-06-17 20:00 England vs Croatia2026-06-17 23:00 Ghana vs Panama2026-06-18 02:00 Uzbekistan vs Colombia2026-06-18 16:00 Czechia vs South Africa2026-06-18 19:00 Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina2026-06-18 22:00 Canada vs Qatar2026-06-19 01:00 Mexico vs South Korea2026-06-19 19:00 USA vs Australia2026-06-19 22:00 Scotland vs Morocco2026-06-20 00:30 Brazil vs Haiti2026-06-20 03:00 Türkiye vs Paraguay2026-06-20 17:00 Netherlands vs Sweden2026-06-20 20:00 Germany vs Ivory Coast2026-06-21 00:00 Ecuador vs Curaçao2026-06-21 04:00 Tunisia vs Japan2026-06-21 16:00 Spain vs Saudi Arabia2026-06-21 19:00 Belgium vs Iran2026-06-21 22:00 Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands2026-06-22 01:00 New Zealand vs Egypt2026-06-22 17:00 Argentina vs Austria2026-06-22 21:00 France vs Iraq2026-06-23 00:00 Norway vs Senegal2026-06-23 03:00 Jordan vs Algeria2026-06-23 17:00 Portugal vs Uzbekistan2026-06-23 20:00 England vs Ghana2026-06-23 23:00 Panama vs Croatia2026-06-24 02:00 Colombia vs Congo DR2026-06-24 19:00 Switzerland vs Canada2026-06-24 19:00 Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar2026-06-24 22:00 Morocco vs Haiti2026-06-24 22:00 Scotland vs Brazil2026-06-25 01:00 South Africa vs South Korea2026-06-25 01:00 Czechia vs Mexico2026-06-25 20:00 Ecuador vs Germany2026-06-25 20:00 Curaçao vs Ivory Coast2026-06-25 23:00 Tunisia vs Netherlands2026-06-25 23:00 Japan vs Sweden2026-06-26 02:00 Paraguay vs Australia2026-06-26 02:00 Türkiye vs USA2026-06-26 19:00 Norway vs France2026-06-26 19:00 Senegal vs Iraq2026-06-27 00:00 Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia2026-06-27 00:00 Uruguay vs Spain2026-06-27 03:00 New Zealand vs Belgium2026-06-27 03:00 Egypt vs Iran2026-06-27 21:00 Panama vs England2026-06-27 21:00 Croatia vs Ghana2026-06-27 23:30 Colombia vs Portugal2026-06-27 23:30 Congo DR vs Uzbekistan2026-06-28 02:00 Jordan vs Argentina2026-06-28 02:00 Algeria vs Austria