South AfricaRSA
RSA
South Africa
Winner: Canada
World Cup knockout projection
A tournament bracket forecast from fixture actuals and the remaining knockout model. Confirmed placements are shown as teams; unresolved slots list the two most likely candidates.
Built from model JSON · fixtures · actuals · team events · third-place table
Simulations25,000
Completed group fixtures
72
Projected group fixtures
0
Completed knockout fixtures
32
Third-place routes
495
Method
How the bracket is populated
- Completed group fixtures are fixed from FIFA fantasy actuals.
- Remaining group fixtures are simulated from current odds-calibrated expected-goals rows.
- Completed knockout fixtures are fixed from FIFA fantasy actuals, including penalty shootout winners.
- Round-of-32 bracket placements use the refreshed FIFA fantasy fixture rows when those teams have been published.
- Group tables use points, goal difference, goals for, then random tie-break draws for unresolved simulated ties.
- Knockout progression uses odds-derived team attack and defensive weakness ratings from the group-stage expected-goals rows.
- Likely-winner percentages show the team-strength path simulation first and direct fixture odds second; fixture odds are NA when no match-winner odds row is available.
- The current API-Football consensus dataset does not include tournament outright odds, so this is a path simulation from fixture odds rather than a direct outright market model.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-final
Semi-final
Final
NetherlandsNED
NED
Netherlands
Winner: Morocco
Winner: Brazil
Côte d'IvoireCIV
CIV
Côte d'Ivoire
Winner: Norway
Winner: Paraguay
Winner: France
Winner: Mexico
Winner: England
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH
BIH
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Winner: USA
Winner: Belgium
Cabo VerdeCPV
CPV
Cabo Verde
Winner: Argentina
Winner: Egypt
Winner: Portugal
Winner: Spain
Winner: Colombia
SwitzerlandSUI
SUI
Switzerland
Winner: Switzerland
Winner: Morocco
Winner: Norway
Winner: France
Winner: England
Winner: Belgium
Winner: Spain
Winner: Argentina
SwitzerlandW88
SUI
Switzerland
Winner: Switzerland
Winner: France
Winner: England
Winner: Spain
SwitzerlandW96
SUI
Switzerland
Winner: Argentina
Winner: England
Winner: Spain
Likely winner ESP: 58.4%, 57.4% (team-strength/odds)
Round of 32 routing
Group slots feeding each match
| Match | Side A | Side B | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| M73 | RSA | CAN | South Africa vs Canada |
| M75 | NED | MAR | Netherlands vs Morocco |
| M74 | BRA | JPN | Brazil vs Japan |
| M77 | CIV | NOR | Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway |
| M78 | GER | PAR | Germany vs Paraguay |
| M79 | FRA | SWE | France vs Sweden |
| M82 | MEX | ECU | Mexico vs Ecuador |
| M83 | ENG | COD | England vs Congo DR |
| M76 | USA | BIH | USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| M84 | BEL | SEN | Belgium vs Senegal |
| M80 | ARG | CPV | Argentina vs Cabo Verde |
| M81 | AUS | EGY | Australia vs Egypt |
| M85 | POR | CRO | Portugal vs Croatia |
| M87 | ESP | AUT | Spain vs Austria |
| M86 | COL | GHA | Colombia vs Ghana |
| M88 | SUI | ALG | Switzerland vs Algeria |
Simulation output
Top title paths
| Team | Name | Group | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Spain | H | 58.4% |
| ENG | England | L | 41.6% |
Third-place routing
Most likely third-place sets
| Groups | Probability |
|---|---|
| BDEFIJKL | 100.0% |