Fixture 33 · MD2 · 2026-06-20 17:00

Netherlands vs Sweden

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.11 combined

Actual goals 6 Netherlands 5-1 Sweden

Opportunity score 47.06 combined

Netherlands 28.28 team score

Sweden 18.79 team score

Status Complete Netherlands 5-1 Sweden

Netherlands

Score 28.28 weighted

xG 1.96

CS 33.4%

xGC 1.15

SOT 5.62

YC 1.35

Sweden

Score 18.79 weighted

xG 1.15

CS 16.7%

xGC 1.96

SOT 3.28

YC 1.52

Netherlands expected goals

0 13.9%

1 27.5%

2 27.1%

3 17.8%

4 8.8%

5 Actual3.4%

6+ 1.6%

Sweden expected goals

0 31.7%

1 Actual36.4%

2 20.9%

3 8.0%

4 2.3%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Netherlands goals conceded

0 31.7%

1 36.4%

2 20.9%

3 8.0%

4 2.3%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Sweden goals conceded

0 13.9%

1 27.5%

2 27.1%

3 17.8%

4 8.8%

5 3.4%

6+ 1.6%

Netherlands scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.96	86.1%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.77	83.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.33	33.4%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.15	68.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.13	88.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.62	99.6%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	10.21	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	10.83	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.35	74.1%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.7%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Sweden scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.15	68.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.03	64.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.17	16.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.96	86.1%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.65	97.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.28	96.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	17.49	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.32	99.8%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.52	78.1%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	7.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.2%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box