Fixture 55 · MD3 · 2026-06-25 20:00

Ecuador vs Germany

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.06 combined

Actual goals 3 Ecuador 2-1 Germany

Opportunity score 48.71 combined

Ecuador 19.19 team score

Germany 29.52 team score

Status Complete Ecuador 2-1 Germany

Ecuador

Score 19.19 weighted

xG 1.07

CS 15.3%

xGC 1.99

SOT 3.12

YC 1.45

Germany

Score 29.52 weighted

xG 1.99

CS 35.9%

xGC 1.07

SOT 5.83

YC 1.18

Ecuador expected goals

0 34.3%

1 36.7%

2 Actual19.6%

3 7.0%

4 1.9%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Germany expected goals

0 13.5%

1 Actual27.1%

2 27.1%

3 18.0%

4 9.0%

5 3.6%

6+ 1.7%

Ecuador goals conceded

0 13.5%

1 27.1%

2 27.1%

3 18.0%

4 9.0%

5 3.6%

6+ 1.7%

Germany goals conceded

0 34.3%

1 36.7%

2 19.6%

3 7.0%

4 1.9%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Ecuador scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.07	65.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.96	61.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.15	15.3%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.99	86.5%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.83	97.8%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.12	95.6%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	21.68	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.88	99.7%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.45	76.5%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.1%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.1%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.08	7.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Germany scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.99	86.5%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.80	83.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.36	35.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.07	65.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.05	87.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.83	99.7%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	11.60	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	11.00	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.18	69.3%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.8%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.3%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box