Fixture 17 · MD1 · 2026-06-16 19:00

France vs Senegal

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.94 combined

Actual goals 4 France 3-1 Senegal

Opportunity score 47.20 combined

France 30.44 team score

Senegal 16.75 team score

Status Complete France 3-1 Senegal

France

Score 30.44 weighted

xG 2.07

CS 44.8%

xGC 0.87

SOT 6.36

YC 1.51

Senegal

Score 16.75 weighted

xG 0.87

CS 14.2%

xGC 2.07

SOT 2.66

YC 2.25

France expected goals

0 12.5%

1 26.0%

2 27.0%

3 Actual18.7%

4 9.7%

5 4.1%

6+ 2.0%

Senegal expected goals

0 41.9%

1 Actual36.4%

2 15.9%

3 4.6%

4 1.0%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

France goals conceded

0 41.9%

1 36.4%

2 15.9%

3 4.6%

4 1.0%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Senegal goals conceded

0 12.5%

1 26.0%

2 27.0%

3 18.7%

4 9.7%

5 4.1%

6+ 2.0%

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.07	87.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.87	84.6%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.45	44.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.87	58.1%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.79	83.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	6.36	99.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	10.18	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	11.43	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.51	77.9%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.20	17.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.08	7.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	1.4%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.03	2.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	4.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Senegal scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.87	58.1%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.78	54.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.14	14.2%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	2.07	87.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.28	98.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.66	93.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	24.32	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.79	99.2%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.25	89.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	6.0%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.08	7.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.20	17.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.3%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	6.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	1.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box