Fixture 22 · MD1 · 2026-06-17 20:00

England vs Croatia

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.58 combined

Actual goals 6 England 4-2 Croatia

Opportunity score 42.62 combined

England 26.15 team score

Croatia 16.46 team score

Status Complete England 4-2 Croatia

England

Score 26.15 weighted

xG 1.69

CS 42.3%

xGC 0.89

SOT 5.66

YC 0.83

Croatia

Score 16.46 weighted

xG 0.89

CS 20.7%

xGC 1.69

SOT 2.98

YC 1.64

England expected goals

0 18.5%

1 31.2%

2 26.4%

3 14.8%

4 Actual6.3%

5 2.1%

6+ 0.8%

Croatia expected goals

0 41.1%

1 36.5%

2 Actual16.3%

3 4.8%

4 1.1%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

England goals conceded

0 41.1%

1 36.5%

2 16.3%

3 4.8%

4 1.1%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Croatia goals conceded

0 18.5%

1 31.2%

2 26.4%

3 14.8%

4 6.3%

5 2.1%

6+ 0.8%

England scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.69	81.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.52	78.2%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.42	42.3%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.89	58.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.09	87.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.66	99.7%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	9.80	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	9.29	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	0.83	56.4%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.04	4.4%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.03	3.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.9%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Croatia scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.89	58.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.80	55.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.21	20.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.69	81.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.97	98.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.98	94.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.60	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.89	99.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.64	80.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.1%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.6%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.0%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box