Result predictor
Uses the highest home/draw/away probability as the pick. Team result points compare actual W/D/L points to odds-implied expected points.
Latest odds snapshot · 2026-07-17 07:24:33
Results vs Betting Odds
Aggregates completed fixture results against the latest consensus odds. Teams are sorted from largest mismatch to closest fit.
Completed fixtures
104
208 team-games
Result pick hit rate
68.3%
71/104
Actual goals vs xG
308 / 289.2
completed fixtures
O2.5 hit rate
58.7%
61/104
BTTS hit rate
55.8%
58/104
Failed CS actual vs expected
153 / 141.9
team-games
Scoreline predictor
Compares actual team goals to odds-implied team xG, with the fixture Over 2.5 call shown alongside it.
Clean-sheet failure
Uses the clean-sheet market where available. The BTTS column shows how a simple BTTS >= 50% signal behaved as a failed-clean-sheet proxy.
Mismatch score
Combines result surprise, absolute team-goal error, and failed-clean-sheet calibration error. Higher means the team has least matched the odds so far.
Overall Odds-Type Diagnostics
| Odds type | Hits | Hit rate | P(actual) | Brier | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 71/104 | 68.3% | 50.5% | 0.156 | Winner/draw/loser pick from the highest match-result probability. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61/104 | 58.7% | 0.233 | Actual goals 308 vs expected 289.2. | |
| BTTS | 58/104 | 55.8% | 0.248 | Fixture-level both-teams-to-score call. | |
| Clean-sheet failure | 157/208 | 75.5% | 0.170 | Actual failed clean sheets 153 vs expected 141.9 team-games. | |
| BTTS as failed-CS signal | 93/208 | 44.7% | Uses BTTS >= 50% as a blunt per-team failed-clean-sheet signal. |
Team Mismatch Ranking
| Rank | Team | Games | Mismatch | Result predictor | Actual / expected result pts | Actual / xG | O2.5 call | Failed CS actual / expected | BTTS vs failed CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Türkiye | 3 | 1.55Underperforming odds | 0/30.0% hit, 22.5% p(actual) | 3.0 / 4.6-1.6 result pts | 3.0 / 4.5-1.5 goals | 3/3100.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.0+1.0 failed CS | 2/366.7% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands | 4 | 1.46Near result expectation | 1/425.0% hit, 35.7% p(actual) | 3.0 / 2.4+0.6 result pts | 4.0 / 2.8+1.2 goals | 2/450.0% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 3.4-1.4 failed CS | 1/425.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4 | 1.40Underperforming odds | 1/425.0% hit, 26.2% p(actual) | 4.0 / 5.9-1.9 result pts | 2.0 / 5.8-3.8 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.5+0.5 failed CS | 2/450.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 4 | England | 8 | 1.33Outperforming odds | 5/862.5% hit, 46.5% p(actual) | 19.0 / 15.1+3.9 result pts | 20.0 / 15.2+4.8 goals | 2/825.0% O2.5 hit | 6.0 / 4.7+1.3 failed CS | 4/850.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 5 | Belgium | 6 | 1.28Near result expectation | 3/650.0% hit, 43.7% p(actual) | 11.0 / 10.5+0.5 result pts | 14.0 / 11.2+2.8 goals | 5/683.3% O2.5 hit | 5.0 / 3.9+1.1 failed CS | 5/683.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 6 | Germany | 4 | 1.28Underperforming odds | 2/450.0% hit, 49.1% p(actual) | 7.0 / 9.3-2.3 result pts | 11.0 / 10.7+0.3 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 2.1+1.9 failed CS | 2/450.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 7 | Colombia | 5 | 1.27Outperforming odds | 3/560.0% hit, 50.7% p(actual) | 11.0 / 9.2+1.8 result pts | 5.0 / 8.4-3.4 goals | 3/560.0% O2.5 hit | 1.0 / 2.9-1.9 failed CS | 3/560.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 8 | Portugal | 5 | 1.26Underperforming odds | 3/560.0% hit, 46.2% p(actual) | 8.0 / 9.6-1.6 result pts | 8.0 / 10.0-2.0 goals | 2/540.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 3.0+0.0 failed CS | 3/560.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 9 | Switzerland | 6 | 1.26Outperforming odds | 4/666.7% hit, 41.4% p(actual) | 11.0 / 9.7+1.3 result pts | 10.0 / 9.1+0.9 goals | 3/650.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 3.7+0.3 failed CS | 3/650.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 10 | South Korea | 3 | 1.25Underperforming odds | 2/366.7% hit, 33.5% p(actual) | 3.0 / 4.4-1.4 result pts | 2.0 / 4.0-2.0 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.0+1.0 failed CS | 2/366.7% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 11 | Iran | 3 | 1.25Near result expectation | 0/30.0% hit, 27.9% p(actual) | 3.0 / 3.6-0.6 result pts | 3.0 / 3.2-0.2 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 2.1-0.1 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 12 | Australia | 4 | 1.22Outperforming odds | 2/450.0% hit, 37.9% p(actual) | 5.0 / 3.9+1.1 result pts | 3.0 / 3.6-0.6 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 3.0-1.0 failed CS | 2/450.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 13 | Spain | 8 | 1.14Outperforming odds | 6/875.0% hit, 50.7% p(actual) | 22.0 / 16.3+5.7 result pts | 14.0 / 16.9-2.9 goals | 5/862.5% O2.5 hit | 1.0 / 4.4-3.4 failed CS | 6/875.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 14 | Canada | 5 | 1.14Underperforming odds | 4/580.0% hit, 49.2% p(actual) | 7.0 / 8.1-1.1 result pts | 9.0 / 7.5+1.5 goals | 3/560.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 3.1-0.1 failed CS | 3/560.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 15 | Uruguay | 3 | 1.12Underperforming odds | 1/333.3% hit, 33.5% p(actual) | 2.0 / 5.2-3.2 result pts | 3.0 / 4.5-1.5 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 1.7+1.3 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 16 | Netherlands | 4 | 1.08Near result expectation | 2/450.0% hit, 50.2% p(actual) | 8.0 / 7.8+0.2 result pts | 11.0 / 8.0+3.0 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 2.3+1.7 failed CS | 3/475.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 17 | Mexico | 5 | 1.07Outperforming odds | 5/5100.0% hit, 49.4% p(actual) | 12.0 / 8.6+3.4 result pts | 10.0 / 7.3+2.7 goals | 3/560.0% O2.5 hit | 1.0 / 2.9-1.9 failed CS | 2/540.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 18 | Japan | 4 | 1.06Near result expectation | 2/450.0% hit, 43.6% p(actual) | 5.0 / 5.8-0.8 result pts | 8.0 / 5.5+2.5 goals | 1/425.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.7+0.3 failed CS | 3/475.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 19 | Ghana | 4 | 1.06Near result expectation | 3/475.0% hit, 43.4% p(actual) | 4.0 / 3.3+0.7 result pts | 2.0 / 3.4-1.4 goals | 2/450.0% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 3.1-1.1 failed CS | 2/450.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 20 | USA | 5 | 1.02Near result expectation | 3/560.0% hit, 46.5% p(actual) | 9.0 / 9.1-0.1 result pts | 11.0 / 8.9+2.1 goals | 2/540.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 3.2-0.2 failed CS | 4/580.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 21 | Sweden | 4 | 1.00Near result expectation | 3/475.0% hit, 52.2% p(actual) | 4.0 / 4.1-0.1 result pts | 7.0 / 4.7+2.3 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 3.1+0.9 failed CS | 3/475.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 22 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0.99Near result expectation | 1/333.3% hit, 46.1% p(actual) | 2.0 / 2.1-0.1 result pts | 1.0 / 2.4-1.4 goals | 3/3100.0% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 2.5-0.5 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 23 | France | 8 | 0.98Near result expectation | 6/875.0% hit, 61.3% p(actual) | 18.0 / 17.3+0.7 result pts | 20.0 / 18.4+1.6 goals | 6/875.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 4.5-0.5 failed CS | 6/875.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 24 | Morocco | 6 | 0.97Outperforming odds | 4/666.7% hit, 51.2% p(actual) | 11.0 / 9.1+1.9 result pts | 10.0 / 8.8+1.2 goals | 5/683.3% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 3.8+0.2 failed CS | 3/650.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 25 | Algeria | 4 | 0.95Near result expectation | 4/4100.0% hit, 55.4% p(actual) | 4.0 / 5.0-1.0 result pts | 5.0 / 4.5+0.5 goals | 1/425.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 2.7+1.3 failed CS | 0/40.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 26 | South Africa | 4 | 0.95Near result expectation | 2/450.0% hit, 41.4% p(actual) | 4.0 / 3.1+0.9 result pts | 2.0 / 3.2-1.2 goals | 4/4100.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 3.2-0.2 failed CS | 1/425.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 27 | Czechia | 3 | 0.95Underperforming odds | 2/366.7% hit, 38.8% p(actual) | 1.0 / 4.0-3.0 result pts | 2.0 / 3.8-1.8 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.1+0.9 failed CS | 2/366.7% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 28 | Paraguay | 5 | 0.94Near result expectation | 3/560.0% hit, 42.2% p(actual) | 5.0 / 4.3+0.7 result pts | 3.0 / 4.4-1.4 goals | 2/540.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 3.8-0.8 failed CS | 1/520.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 29 | Senegal | 4 | 0.93Underperforming odds | 4/4100.0% hit, 57.2% p(actual) | 3.0 / 5.3-2.3 result pts | 10.0 / 5.9+4.1 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.9+0.1 failed CS | 3/475.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 30 | Argentina | 8 | 0.93Outperforming odds | 7/887.5% hit, 62.1% p(actual) | 21.0 / 16.2+4.8 result pts | 19.0 / 15.3+3.7 goals | 4/850.0% O2.5 hit | 6.0 / 4.1+1.9 failed CS | 2/825.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 31 | Egypt | 5 | 0.92Near result expectation | 2/540.0% hit, 44.7% p(actual) | 6.0 / 6.2-0.2 result pts | 8.0 / 5.6+2.4 goals | 3/560.0% O2.5 hit | 5.0 / 3.4+1.6 failed CS | 0/50.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 32 | Austria | 4 | 0.92Near result expectation | 4/4100.0% hit, 63.5% p(actual) | 4.0 / 4.6-0.6 result pts | 6.0 / 4.5+1.5 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 2.8+1.2 failed CS | 0/40.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 33 | Brazil | 5 | 0.90Near result expectation | 3/560.0% hit, 52.1% p(actual) | 10.0 / 10.8-0.8 result pts | 10.0 / 10.7-0.7 goals | 4/580.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.7+0.3 failed CS | 3/560.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 34 | Norway | 6 | 0.89Outperforming odds | 5/683.3% hit, 50.8% p(actual) | 12.0 / 8.1+3.9 result pts | 13.0 / 8.9+4.1 goals | 4/666.7% O2.5 hit | 6.0 / 4.3+1.7 failed CS | 5/683.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 35 | Curaçao | 3 | 0.89Near result expectation | 2/366.7% hit, 62.3% p(actual) | 1.0 / 0.7+0.3 result pts | 1.0 / 1.4-0.4 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 2.8-0.8 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 36 | Croatia | 4 | 0.85Near result expectation | 4/4100.0% hit, 57.5% p(actual) | 6.0 / 5.6+0.4 result pts | 6.0 / 5.7+0.3 goals | 1/425.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.8+0.2 failed CS | 1/425.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 37 | Congo DR | 4 | 0.85Near result expectation | 3/475.0% hit, 52.0% p(actual) | 4.0 / 3.4+0.6 result pts | 5.0 / 3.4+1.6 goals | 1/425.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 3.1+0.9 failed CS | 0/40.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 38 | Scotland | 3 | 0.85Near result expectation | 3/3100.0% hit, 64.0% p(actual) | 3.0 / 3.3-0.3 result pts | 1.0 / 3.6-2.6 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 2.3-0.3 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 39 | Panama | 3 | 0.75Underperforming odds | 3/3100.0% hit, 63.1% p(actual) | 0.0 / 2.1-2.1 result pts | 0.0 / 2.5-2.5 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.5+0.5 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 40 | Ivory Coast | 4 | 0.73Near result expectation | 3/475.0% hit, 55.1% p(actual) | 6.0 / 5.5+0.5 result pts | 5.0 / 6.0-1.0 goals | 2/450.0% O2.5 hit | 2.0 / 2.7-0.7 failed CS | 4/4100.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 41 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 0.68Near result expectation | 3/475.0% hit, 57.0% p(actual) | 4.0 / 4.4-0.4 result pts | 5.0 / 4.8+0.2 goals | 3/475.0% O2.5 hit | 4.0 / 3.0+1.0 failed CS | 1/425.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 42 | New Zealand | 3 | 0.67Near result expectation | 2/366.7% hit, 55.8% p(actual) | 1.0 / 2.0-1.0 result pts | 4.0 / 2.5+1.5 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.5+0.5 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 43 | Qatar | 3 | 0.66Near result expectation | 2/366.7% hit, 52.2% p(actual) | 1.0 / 1.4-0.4 result pts | 2.0 / 2.1-0.1 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.7+0.3 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 44 | Haiti | 3 | 0.65Underperforming odds | 3/3100.0% hit, 76.9% p(actual) | 0.0 / 1.2-1.2 result pts | 2.0 / 2.1-0.1 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.7+0.3 failed CS | 1/333.3% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 45 | Tunisia | 3 | 0.53Underperforming odds | 3/3100.0% hit, 67.0% p(actual) | 0.0 / 1.8-1.8 result pts | 2.0 / 2.1-0.1 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.5+0.5 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 46 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0.48Underperforming odds | 3/3100.0% hit, 68.9% p(actual) | 0.0 / 1.6-1.6 result pts | 2.0 / 2.0-0.0 goals | 1/333.3% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.5+0.5 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 47 | Jordan | 3 | 0.43Underperforming odds | 3/3100.0% hit, 71.9% p(actual) | 0.0 / 1.5-1.5 result pts | 3.0 / 2.0+1.0 goals | 2/366.7% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.6+0.4 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
| 48 | Iraq | 3 | 0.40Near result expectation | 3/3100.0% hit, 81.1% p(actual) | 0.0 / 0.9-0.9 result pts | 1.0 / 1.8-0.8 goals | 3/3100.0% O2.5 hit | 3.0 / 2.8+0.2 failed CS | 0/30.0% BTTS-as-failed-CS |
Most Surprising Completed Fixtures
| Rank | Fixture | Result | Result pick | xG / actual goals | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain vs Cape Verde IslandsMD1 | 0-0 | Spainactual Draw, p(actual) 8.0% | 3.75 / 0-3.8 goals | Miss | Hit |
| 2 | Ecuador vs CuraçaoMD2 | 0-0 | Ecuadoractual Draw, p(actual) 12.6% | 3.15 / 0-3.1 goals | Miss | Hit |
| 3 | England vs GhanaMD2 | 0-0 | Englandactual Draw, p(actual) 13.9% | 3.20 / 0-3.2 goals | Miss | Hit |
| 4 | Qatar vs SwitzerlandMD1 | 1-1 | Switzerlandactual Draw, p(actual) 14.2% | 3.05 / 2-1.0 goals | Miss | Miss |
| 5 | South Africa vs South KoreaMD3 | 1-0 | South Koreaactual South Africa, p(actual) 17.2% | 2.50 / 1-1.5 goals | Hit | Hit |
| 6 | Portugal vs Congo DRMD1 | 1-1 | Portugalactual Draw, p(actual) 17.4% | 2.85 / 2-0.9 goals | Miss | Miss |
| 7 | Australia vs TürkiyeMD1 | 2-0 | Türkiyeactual Australia, p(actual) 18.4% | 2.55 / 2-0.5 goals | Hit | Hit |
| 8 | Germany vs ParaguayR32 | 1-1 | Germanyactual Draw, p(actual) 18.8% | 3.00 / 2-1.0 goals | Miss | Miss |
| 9 | Ecuador vs GermanyMD3 | 2-1 | Germanyactual Ecuador, p(actual) 20.1% | 3.05 / 3-0.0 goals | Hit | Hit |
| 10 | Belgium vs IranMD2 | 0-0 | Belgiumactual Draw, p(actual) 20.3% | 2.85 / 0-2.9 goals | Miss | Hit |
| 11 | Brazil vs NorwayR16 | 1-2 | Brazilactual Norway, p(actual) 21.3% | 3.05 / 3-0.0 goals | Hit | Hit |
| 12 | Uruguay vs Cape Verde IslandsMD2 | 2-2 | Uruguayactual Draw, p(actual) 22.1% | 2.40 / 4+1.6 goals | Miss | Miss |