Fixture 28 · MD2 · 2026-06-19 01:00

Mexico vs South Korea

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.51 combined

Actual goals 1 Mexico 1-0 South Korea

Opportunity score 40.38 combined

Mexico 23.01 team score

South Korea 17.37 team score

Status Complete Mexico 1-0 South Korea

Mexico

Score 23.01 weighted

xG 1.49

CS 38.8%

xGC 1.02

SOT 4.78

YC 1.40

South Korea

Score 17.37 weighted

xG 1.02

CS 24.8%

xGC 1.49

SOT 3.27

YC 1.75

Mexico expected goals

0 22.5%

1 Actual33.6%

2 25.0%

3 12.4%

4 4.6%

5 1.4%

6+ 0.4%

South Korea expected goals

0 Actual36.1%

1 36.8%

2 18.8%

3 6.4%

4 1.6%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.1%

Mexico goals conceded

0 36.1%

1 36.8%

2 18.8%

3 6.4%

4 1.6%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.1%

South Korea goals conceded

0 22.5%

1 33.6%

2 25.0%

3 12.4%

4 4.6%

5 1.4%

6+ 0.4%

Mexico scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.49	77.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.34	73.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.39	38.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.02	63.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.25	89.5%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.78	99.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	11.10	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.19	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.40	75.3%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.17	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	3.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

South Korea scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.02	63.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.92	60.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.25	24.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.49	77.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.29	96.3%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.27	96.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	16.21	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.61	99.6%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.75	82.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.4%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.17	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.6%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box