Fixture 62 · MD3 · 2026-06-26 19:00

Senegal vs Iraq

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.25 combined

Actual goals 5 Senegal 5-0 Iraq

Opportunity score 50.22 combined

Senegal 35.43 team score

Iraq 14.79 team score

Status Complete Senegal 5-0 Iraq

Senegal

Score 35.43 weighted

xG 2.53

CS 50.9%

xGC 0.72

SOT 6.68

YC 1.19

Iraq

Score 14.79 weighted

xG 0.72

CS 9.2%

xGC 2.53

SOT 1.89

YC 1.63

Senegal expected goals

0 7.8%

1 19.9%

2 25.4%

3 21.6%

4 13.8%

5 Actual7.0%

6+ 4.5%

Iraq expected goals

0 Actual48.7%

1 35.0%

2 12.6%

3 3.0%

4 0.5%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Senegal goals conceded

0 48.7%

1 35.0%

2 12.6%

3 3.0%

4 0.5%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Iraq goals conceded

0 7.8%

1 19.9%

2 25.4%

3 21.6%

4 13.8%

5 7.0%

6+ 4.5%

Senegal scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.53	92.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	2.28	89.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.51	50.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.72	51.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.17	69.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	6.68	99.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	7.16	99.9%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	13.96	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.19	69.6%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.8%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.22	19.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.06	6.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	1.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.03	2.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.05	4.6%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Iraq scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.72	51.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.65	47.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.09	9.2%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	2.53	92.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.14	98.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	1.89	84.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	25.30	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	3.96	98.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.63	80.4%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.06	6.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.22	19.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	3.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.10	9.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.01	1.3%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box