Fixture 1 · MD1 · 2026-06-11 19:00

Mexico vs South Africa

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.47 combined

Actual goals 2 Mexico 2-0 South Africa

Opportunity score 40.31 combined

Mexico 27.33 team score

South Africa 12.98 team score

Status Complete Mexico 2-0 South Africa

Mexico

Score 27.33 weighted

xG 1.85

CS 54.8%

xGC 0.62

SOT 6.01

YC 1.55

South Africa

Score 12.98 weighted

xG 0.62

CS 17.8%

xGC 1.85

SOT 2.02

YC 2.59

Mexico expected goals

0 15.7%

1 29.1%

2 Actual26.9%

3 16.6%

4 7.7%

5 2.8%

6+ 1.2%

South Africa expected goals

0 Actual53.8%

1 33.4%

2 10.3%

3 2.1%

4 0.3%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

Mexico goals conceded

0 53.8%

1 33.4%

2 10.3%

3 2.1%

4 0.3%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

South Africa goals conceded

0 15.7%

1 29.1%

2 26.9%

3 16.6%

4 7.7%

5 2.8%

6+ 1.2%

Mexico scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.85	84.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.66	81.1%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.55	54.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.62	46.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.40	75.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	6.01	99.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	7.62	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	10.17	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.55	78.8%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.21	18.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.07	6.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	1.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.02	2.4%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	4.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

South Africa scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.62	46.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.56	42.8%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.18	17.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.85	84.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.16	98.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.02	86.7%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	22.72	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	3.41	96.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.59	92.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.07	6.4%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.07	6.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.21	18.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	3.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	7.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	1.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box