Fixture 57 · MD3 · 2026-06-25 23:00

Tunisia vs Netherlands

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.54 combined

Actual goals 4 Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands

Opportunity score 54.32 combined

Tunisia 12.55 team score

Netherlands 41.77 team score

Status Complete Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands

Tunisia

Score 12.55 weighted

xG 0.54

CS 5.7%

xGC 3.00

SOT 1.36

YC 1.55

Netherlands

Score 41.77 weighted

xG 3.00

CS 62.5%

xGC 0.54

SOT 7.65

YC 0.61

Tunisia expected goals

0 58.3%

1 Actual31.5%

2 8.5%

3 1.5%

4 0.2%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

Netherlands expected goals

0 4.7%

1 14.3%

2 22.0%

3 Actual22.4%

4 17.1%

5 10.5%

6+ 9.0%

Tunisia goals conceded

0 4.7%

1 14.3%

2 22.0%

3 22.4%

4 17.1%

5 10.5%

6+ 9.0%

Netherlands goals conceded

0 58.3%

1 31.5%

2 8.5%

3 1.5%

4 0.2%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

Tunisia scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.54	41.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.49	38.5%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.06	5.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	3.00	95.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.63	99.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	1.36	74.3%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	26.86	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	2.97	94.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.55	78.8%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.04	4.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.24	21.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	4.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.11	10.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.01	0.9%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Netherlands scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	3.00	95.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	2.72	93.6%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.63	62.5%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	0.54	41.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	0.82	55.9%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	7.65	100.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	4.76	99.1%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	16.46	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	0.61	45.7%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.04	4.1%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.24	21.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.04	4.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	0.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.02	2.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.05	5.0%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box