Fixture 42 · MD2 · 2026-06-22 21:00

France vs Iraq

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.80 combined

Actual goals 3 France 3-0 Iraq

Opportunity score 57.25 combined

France 44.24 team score

Iraq 13.01 team score

Status Complete France 3-0 Iraq

France

Score 44.24 weighted

xG 3.22

CS 63.4%

xGC 0.58

SOT 8.02

YC 0.79

Iraq

Score 13.01 weighted

xG 0.58

CS 5.7%

xGC 3.22

SOT 1.42

YC 1.76

France expected goals

0 3.7%

1 12.2%

2 20.1%

3 Actual22.1%

4 18.2%

5 12.0%

6+ 11.7%

Iraq expected goals

0 Actual56.0%

1 32.5%

2 9.4%

3 1.8%

4 0.3%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

France goals conceded

0 56.0%

1 32.5%

2 9.4%

3 1.8%

4 0.3%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

Iraq goals conceded

0 3.7%

1 12.2%

2 20.1%

3 22.1%

4 18.2%

5 12.0%

6+ 11.7%

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	3.22	96.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	2.92	94.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.63	63.4%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.58	44.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	0.84	57.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	8.02	100.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	4.95	99.3%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	17.48	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	0.79	54.6%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.04	4.4%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.24	21.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.04	4.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	0.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.02	2.4%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.05	5.0%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Iraq scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.58	44.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.52	40.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.06	5.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	3.22	96.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.78	99.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	1.42	75.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	27.96	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	3.19	95.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.76	82.8%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.5%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.04	4.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.24	21.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	4.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.13	12.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.01	0.9%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box