Fixture 12 · MD1 · 2026-06-15 02:00

Sweden vs Tunisia

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.50 combined

Actual goals 6 Sweden 5-1 Tunisia

Opportunity score 40.76 combined

Sweden 23.73 team score

Tunisia 17.03 team score

Status Complete Sweden 5-1 Tunisia

Sweden

Score 23.73 weighted

xG 1.54

CS 41.1%

xGC 0.96

SOT 4.96

YC 1.56

Tunisia

Score 17.03 weighted

xG 0.96

CS 23.8%

xGC 1.54

SOT 3.09

YC 1.91

Sweden expected goals

0 21.4%

1 33.0%

2 25.4%

3 13.0%

4 5.0%

5 Actual1.5%

6+ 0.5%

Tunisia expected goals

0 38.3%

1 Actual36.8%

2 17.6%

3 5.6%

4 1.4%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.0%

Sweden goals conceded

0 38.3%

1 36.8%

2 17.6%

3 5.6%

4 1.4%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.0%

Tunisia goals conceded

0 21.4%

1 33.0%

2 25.4%

3 13.0%

4 5.0%

5 1.5%

6+ 0.5%

Sweden scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.54	78.6%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.39	75.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.41	41.1%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.96	61.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.13	88.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.96	99.3%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	11.35	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.47	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.56	79.0%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.17	15.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	3.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.6%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Tunisia scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.96	61.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.86	57.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.24	23.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.54	78.6%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.42	96.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.09	95.5%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.21	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.28	99.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.91	85.2%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.6%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.17	15.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.8%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.3%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box