Fixture 4 · MD1 · 2026-06-13 01:00

USA vs Paraguay

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.30 combined

Actual goals 5 USA 4-1 Paraguay

Opportunity score 40.20 combined

USA 22.25 team score

Paraguay 17.94 team score

Status Complete USA 4-1 Paraguay

USA

Score 22.25 weighted

xG 1.36

CS 40.7%

xGC 0.94

SOT 4.94

YC 1.96

Paraguay

Score 17.94 weighted

xG 0.94

CS 27.8%

xGC 1.36

SOT 3.41

YC 2.07

USA expected goals

0 25.7%

1 34.9%

2 23.7%

3 10.8%

4 Actual3.7%

5 1.0%

6+ 0.3%

Paraguay expected goals

0 39.1%

1 Actual36.7%

2 17.3%

3 5.4%

4 1.3%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

USA goals conceded

0 39.1%

1 36.7%

2 17.3%

3 5.4%

4 1.3%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Paraguay goals conceded

0 25.7%

1 34.9%

2 23.7%

3 10.8%

4 3.7%

5 1.0%

6+ 0.3%

USA scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.36	74.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.22	70.6%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.41	40.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.94	60.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.47	91.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.94	99.3%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	14.13	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	7.48	99.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.96	86.1%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.7%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.16	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Paraguay scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.94	60.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.85	57.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.28	27.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.36	74.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.58	97.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.41	96.7%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	20.44	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.17	99.4%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.07	87.5%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.8%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.16	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box