Fixture 58 · MD3 · 2026-06-25 23:00

Japan vs Sweden

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.73 combined

Actual goals 2 Japan 1-1 Sweden

Opportunity score 44.45 combined

Japan 25.20 team score

Sweden 19.25 team score

Status Complete Japan 1-1 Sweden

Japan

Score 25.20 weighted

xG 1.62

CS 35.9%

xGC 1.11

SOT 5.30

YC 1.21

Sweden

Score 19.25 weighted

xG 1.11

CS 21.8%

xGC 1.62

SOT 3.63

YC 1.49

Japan expected goals

0 19.8%

1 Actual32.1%

2 26.0%

3 14.0%

4 5.7%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Sweden expected goals

0 33.0%

1 Actual36.6%

2 20.3%

3 7.5%

4 2.1%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Japan goals conceded

0 33.0%

1 36.6%

2 20.3%

3 7.5%

4 2.1%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Sweden goals conceded

0 19.8%

1 32.1%

2 26.0%

3 14.0%

4 5.7%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Japan scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.62	80.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.46	76.7%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.36	35.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.11	67.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.52	92.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.30	99.5%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	12.21	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.91	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.21	70.2%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.8%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.17	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.2%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Sweden scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.11	67.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.00	63.2%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.22	21.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.62	80.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.68	97.5%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.63	97.4%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	17.83	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.10	99.8%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.49	77.5%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.17	15.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	6.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box