Fixture 11 · MD1 · 2026-06-14 23:00

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.03 combined

Actual goals 1 Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador

Opportunity score 37.53 combined

Ivory Coast 18.15 team score

Ecuador 19.38 team score

Status Complete Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador

Ivory Coast

Score 18.15 weighted

xG 0.94

CS 35.6%

xGC 1.09

SOT 3.43

YC 1.83

Ecuador

Score 19.38 weighted

xG 1.09

CS 40.7%

xGC 0.94

SOT 3.98

YC 2.00

Ivory Coast expected goals

0 39.1%

1 Actual36.7%

2 17.3%

3 5.4%

4 1.3%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Ecuador expected goals

0 Actual33.6%

1 36.6%

2 20.0%

3 7.3%

4 2.0%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Ivory Coast goals conceded

0 33.6%

1 36.6%

2 20.0%

3 7.3%

4 2.0%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Ecuador goals conceded

0 39.1%

1 36.7%

2 17.3%

3 5.4%

4 1.3%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Ivory Coast scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.94	60.9%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.85	57.1%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.36	35.6%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.09	66.4%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.89	94.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.43	96.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	19.06	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.17	99.4%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.83	84.0%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.5%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.13	12.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.15	14.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	4.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.7%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Ecuador scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.09	66.4%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.98	62.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.41	40.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	0.94	60.9%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.49	91.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.98	98.1%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	16.44	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.99	99.8%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.00	86.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.7%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.15	14.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.13	12.2%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.2%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box