Fantasy World Cup Football 2026 - Modelling Back to main site

Fixture 66 · MD3 · 2026-06-27 03:00

Egypt vs Iran

Event probabilities index
Expected goals 2.11 combined
Actual goals 2 Egypt 1-1 Iran
Opportunity score 37.83 combined
Egypt 19.79 team score
Iran 18.04 team score
Status Complete Egypt 1-1 Iran

Egypt

Score 19.79 weighted
xG 1.13
CS 39.8%
xGC 0.98
SOT 4.12
YC 1.29

Iran

Score 18.04 weighted
xG 0.98
CS 34.2%
xGC 1.13
SOT 3.57
YC 1.45

Egypt expected goals

0 32.3%
1 Actual36.5%
2 20.6%
3 7.8%
4 2.2%
5 0.5%
6+ 0.1%

Iran expected goals

0 37.5%
1 Actual36.8%
2 18.0%
3 5.9%
4 1.4%
5 0.3%
6+ 0.1%

Egypt goals conceded

0 37.5%
1 36.8%
2 18.0%
3 5.9%
4 1.4%
5 0.3%
6+ 0.1%

Iran goals conceded

0 32.3%
1 36.5%
2 20.6%
3 7.8%
4 2.2%
5 0.5%
6+ 0.1%

Egypt scoring opportunities

Opportunity Expected freq. P >= 1 Distribution Method Source
Expected goals Attack 1.13 67.7% 06+ Fitted Total - Home
Assists Attack 1.02 63.8% 06+ Derived Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence 0.40 39.8% 01 Direct Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence 0.98 62.5% 06+ Fitted Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence 2.59 92.5% 010+ Derived Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack 4.12 98.4% 013+ Fitted Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence 14.01 100.0% 036+ Fitted Total Tackles
Chances created Attack 6.21 99.8% 021+ Derived Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk 1.29 72.5% 06+ Fitted Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk 0.05 4.9% 02+ Derived Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack 0.15 13.9% 02+ Derived To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk 0.13 12.2% 02+ Derived To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence 0.02 2.2% 02+ Derived To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk 0.04 4.3% 02+ Derived Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack 0.03 3.2% 02+ Prior Goal Method Outside the Box

Iran scoring opportunities

Opportunity Expected freq. P >= 1 Distribution Method Source
Expected goals Attack 0.98 62.5% 06+ Fitted Total - Away
Assists Attack 0.88 58.6% 06+ Derived Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence 0.34 34.2% 01 Direct Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence 1.13 67.7% 06+ Fitted Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence 2.99 95.0% 010+ Derived Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack 3.57 97.2% 013+ Fitted Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence 16.16 100.0% 036+ Fitted Total Tackles
Chances created Attack 5.39 99.5% 021+ Derived Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk 1.45 76.5% 06+ Fitted Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk 0.05 5.1% 02+ Derived Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack 0.13 12.2% 02+ Derived To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk 0.15 13.9% 02+ Derived To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence 0.03 2.5% 02+ Derived To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk 0.05 4.9% 02+ Derived Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack 0.03 2.7% 02+ Prior Goal Method Outside the Box