Fixture 78 · MD4 · 2026-06-29 20:30

Germany vs Paraguay

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.01 combined

Actual goals 2 Germany 1-1 Paraguay

Opportunity score 49.36 combined

Germany 32.90 team score

Paraguay 16.46 team score

Status Complete Germany 1-1 Paraguay

Germany

Score 32.90 weighted

xG 2.24

CS 47.9%

xGC 0.77

SOT 6.89

YC 1.14

Paraguay

Score 16.46 weighted

xG 0.77

CS 12.6%

xGC 2.24

SOT 2.36

YC 2.05

Germany expected goals

0 10.5%

1 Actual23.7%

2 26.7%

3 20.0%

4 11.3%

5 5.1%

6+ 2.7%

Paraguay expected goals

0 46.3%

1 Actual35.7%

2 13.7%

3 3.5%

4 0.7%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Germany goals conceded

0 46.3%

1 35.7%

2 13.7%

3 3.5%

4 0.7%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Paraguay goals conceded

0 10.5%

1 23.7%

2 26.7%

3 20.0%

4 11.3%

5 5.1%

6+ 2.7%

Germany scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.24	89.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	2.02	86.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.48	47.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.77	53.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.59	79.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	6.89	99.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	9.37	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	12.36	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.14	68.0%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.8%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.21	18.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.07	6.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	1.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.03	3.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	4.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Paraguay scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.77	53.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.69	50.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.13	12.6%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	2.24	89.5%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.64	99.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.36	90.6%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	27.24	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.24	98.6%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.05	87.3%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.8%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.07	6.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.21	18.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	3.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.09	8.8%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	1.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box