{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-23T21:36:39.965627+00:00",
  "simulations": 25000,
  "seed": 20260618,
  "completed_group_fixtures": 72,
  "projected_group_fixtures": 0,
  "completed_knockout_fixtures": 32,
  "third_place_assignment_combinations": 495,
  "third_place_table_source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage",
  "method_notes": [
    "Completed group fixtures are fixed from FIFA fantasy actuals.",
    "Remaining group fixtures are simulated from current odds-calibrated expected-goals rows.",
    "Completed knockout fixtures are fixed from FIFA fantasy actuals, including penalty shootout winners.",
    "Round-of-32 bracket placements use the refreshed FIFA fantasy fixture rows when those teams have been published.",
    "Group tables use points, goal difference, goals for, then random tie-break draws for unresolved simulated ties.",
    "Knockout progression uses odds-derived team attack and defensive weakness ratings from the group-stage expected-goals rows.",
    "Likely-winner percentages show the team-strength path simulation first and direct fixture odds second; fixture odds are NA when no match-winner odds row is available.",
    "The current API-Football consensus dataset does not include tournament outright odds, so this is a path simulation from fixture odds rather than a direct outright market model."
  ],
  "source_paths": {
    "fixtures": "data\\processed\\fixtures_group_stage.csv",
    "actuals": "data\\actuals\\fifa_fantasy_fixture_results.csv",
    "team_events": "data\\model\\team_fixture_expected_fantasy_events.csv",
    "team_strength": "data\\model\\team_strength.csv",
    "third_place_assignments": "data\\config\\knockout_third_place_assignments.json"
  },
  "top_third_place_combinations": [
    {
      "groups": "BDEFIJKL",
      "probability": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "champion_candidates": [
    {
      "team_id": "41",
      "name": "Spain",
      "abbr": "ESP",
      "group": "H",
      "probability": 0.58408
    },
    {
      "team_id": "18",
      "name": "England",
      "abbr": "ENG",
      "group": "L",
      "probability": 0.41592
    }
  ],
  "matches": [
    {
      "match_id": "73",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 0,
      "left_label": "RSA",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "40",
          "name": "South Africa",
          "abbr": "RSA",
          "group": "A",
          "fifa_rank": 60
        }
      },
      "right_label": "CAN",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "9",
          "name": "Canada",
          "abbr": "CAN",
          "group": "B",
          "fifa_rank": 30
        }
      },
      "description": "South Africa vs Canada",
      "odds_fixture_id": "73",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "40",
          "name": "South Africa",
          "abbr": "RSA",
          "group": "A",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "9",
          "name": "Canada",
          "abbr": "CAN",
          "group": "B",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "9",
          "name": "Canada",
          "abbr": "CAN",
          "group": "B",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.679266179266
    },
    {
      "match_id": "75",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 1,
      "left_label": "NED",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "30",
          "name": "Netherlands",
          "abbr": "NED",
          "group": "F",
          "fifa_rank": 8
        }
      },
      "right_label": "MAR",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "29",
          "name": "Morocco",
          "abbr": "MAR",
          "group": "C",
          "fifa_rank": 7
        }
      },
      "description": "Netherlands vs Morocco",
      "odds_fixture_id": "75",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "30",
          "name": "Netherlands",
          "abbr": "NED",
          "group": "F",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "29",
          "name": "Morocco",
          "abbr": "MAR",
          "group": "C",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "29",
          "name": "Morocco",
          "abbr": "MAR",
          "group": "C",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.439816
    },
    {
      "match_id": "74",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 2,
      "left_label": "BRA",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "7",
          "name": "Brazil",
          "abbr": "BRA",
          "group": "C",
          "fifa_rank": 6
        }
      },
      "right_label": "JPN",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "25",
          "name": "Japan",
          "abbr": "JPN",
          "group": "F",
          "fifa_rank": 18
        }
      },
      "description": "Brazil vs Japan",
      "odds_fixture_id": "74",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "7",
          "name": "Brazil",
          "abbr": "BRA",
          "group": "C",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "25",
          "name": "Japan",
          "abbr": "JPN",
          "group": "F",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "7",
          "name": "Brazil",
          "abbr": "BRA",
          "group": "C",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.675269
    },
    {
      "match_id": "77",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 3,
      "left_label": "CIV",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "12",
          "name": "Côte d'Ivoire",
          "abbr": "CIV",
          "group": "E",
          "fifa_rank": 33
        }
      },
      "right_label": "NOR",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "32",
          "name": "Norway",
          "abbr": "NOR",
          "group": "I",
          "fifa_rank": 31
        }
      },
      "description": "Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway",
      "odds_fixture_id": "77",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "12",
          "name": "Côte d'Ivoire",
          "abbr": "CIV",
          "group": "E",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "32",
          "name": "Norway",
          "abbr": "NOR",
          "group": "I",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "32",
          "name": "Norway",
          "abbr": "NOR",
          "group": "I",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.5879235
    },
    {
      "match_id": "78",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 4,
      "left_label": "GER",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "20",
          "name": "Germany",
          "abbr": "GER",
          "group": "E",
          "fifa_rank": 10
        }
      },
      "right_label": "PAR",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "34",
          "name": "Paraguay",
          "abbr": "PAR",
          "group": "D",
          "fifa_rank": 41
        }
      },
      "description": "Germany vs Paraguay",
      "odds_fixture_id": "78",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "20",
          "name": "Germany",
          "abbr": "GER",
          "group": "E",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "34",
          "name": "Paraguay",
          "abbr": "PAR",
          "group": "D",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "34",
          "name": "Paraguay",
          "abbr": "PAR",
          "group": "D",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.1977915
    },
    {
      "match_id": "79",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 5,
      "left_label": "FRA",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "19",
          "name": "France",
          "abbr": "FRA",
          "group": "I",
          "fifa_rank": 3
        }
      },
      "right_label": "SWE",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "42",
          "name": "Sweden",
          "abbr": "SWE",
          "group": "F",
          "fifa_rank": 38
        }
      },
      "description": "France vs Sweden",
      "odds_fixture_id": "79",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "19",
          "name": "France",
          "abbr": "FRA",
          "group": "I",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "42",
          "name": "Sweden",
          "abbr": "SWE",
          "group": "F",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "19",
          "name": "France",
          "abbr": "FRA",
          "group": "I",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.82965
    },
    {
      "match_id": "82",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 6,
      "left_label": "MEX",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "28",
          "name": "Mexico",
          "abbr": "MEX",
          "group": "A",
          "fifa_rank": 14
        }
      },
      "right_label": "ECU",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "16",
          "name": "Ecuador",
          "abbr": "ECU",
          "group": "E",
          "fifa_rank": 23
        }
      },
      "description": "Mexico vs Ecuador",
      "odds_fixture_id": "82",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "28",
          "name": "Mexico",
          "abbr": "MEX",
          "group": "A",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "16",
          "name": "Ecuador",
          "abbr": "ECU",
          "group": "E",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "28",
          "name": "Mexico",
          "abbr": "MEX",
          "group": "A",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.5945965
    },
    {
      "match_id": "83",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 7,
      "left_label": "ENG",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "18",
          "name": "England",
          "abbr": "ENG",
          "group": "L",
          "fifa_rank": 4
        }
      },
      "right_label": "COD",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "11",
          "name": "Congo DR",
          "abbr": "COD",
          "group": "K",
          "fifa_rank": 46
        }
      },
      "description": "England vs Congo DR",
      "odds_fixture_id": "83",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "18",
          "name": "England",
          "abbr": "ENG",
          "group": "L",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "11",
          "name": "Congo DR",
          "abbr": "COD",
          "group": "K",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "18",
          "name": "England",
          "abbr": "ENG",
          "group": "L",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.829042
    },
    {
      "match_id": "76",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 8,
      "left_label": "USA",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "47",
          "name": "USA",
          "abbr": "USA",
          "group": "D",
          "fifa_rank": 17
        }
      },
      "right_label": "BIH",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "6",
          "name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina",
          "abbr": "BIH",
          "group": "B",
          "fifa_rank": 64
        }
      },
      "description": "USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina",
      "odds_fixture_id": "76",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "47",
          "name": "USA",
          "abbr": "USA",
          "group": "D",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "6",
          "name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina",
          "abbr": "BIH",
          "group": "B",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "47",
          "name": "USA",
          "abbr": "USA",
          "group": "D",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.794268
    },
    {
      "match_id": "84",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 9,
      "left_label": "BEL",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "5",
          "name": "Belgium",
          "abbr": "BEL",
          "group": "G",
          "fifa_rank": 9
        }
      },
      "right_label": "SEN",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "39",
          "name": "Senegal",
          "abbr": "SEN",
          "group": "I",
          "fifa_rank": 15
        }
      },
      "description": "Belgium vs Senegal",
      "odds_fixture_id": "84",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "5",
          "name": "Belgium",
          "abbr": "BEL",
          "group": "G",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "39",
          "name": "Senegal",
          "abbr": "SEN",
          "group": "I",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "5",
          "name": "Belgium",
          "abbr": "BEL",
          "group": "G",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.593535
    },
    {
      "match_id": "80",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 10,
      "left_label": "ARG",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "2",
          "name": "Argentina",
          "abbr": "ARG",
          "group": "J",
          "fifa_rank": 1
        }
      },
      "right_label": "CPV",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "8",
          "name": "Cabo Verde",
          "abbr": "CPV",
          "group": "H",
          "fifa_rank": 67
        }
      },
      "description": "Argentina vs Cabo Verde",
      "odds_fixture_id": "80",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "2",
          "name": "Argentina",
          "abbr": "ARG",
          "group": "J",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "8",
          "name": "Cabo Verde",
          "abbr": "CPV",
          "group": "H",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "2",
          "name": "Argentina",
          "abbr": "ARG",
          "group": "J",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.893224
    },
    {
      "match_id": "81",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 11,
      "left_label": "AUS",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "3",
          "name": "Australia",
          "abbr": "AUS",
          "group": "D",
          "fifa_rank": 27
        }
      },
      "right_label": "EGY",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "17",
          "name": "Egypt",
          "abbr": "EGY",
          "group": "G",
          "fifa_rank": 29
        }
      },
      "description": "Australia vs Egypt",
      "odds_fixture_id": "81",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "3",
          "name": "Australia",
          "abbr": "AUS",
          "group": "D",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "17",
          "name": "Egypt",
          "abbr": "EGY",
          "group": "G",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "17",
          "name": "Egypt",
          "abbr": "EGY",
          "group": "G",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.565548
    },
    {
      "match_id": "85",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 12,
      "left_label": "POR",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "35",
          "name": "Portugal",
          "abbr": "POR",
          "group": "K",
          "fifa_rank": 5
        }
      },
      "right_label": "CRO",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "13",
          "name": "Croatia",
          "abbr": "CRO",
          "group": "L",
          "fifa_rank": 11
        }
      },
      "description": "Portugal vs Croatia",
      "odds_fixture_id": "85",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "35",
          "name": "Portugal",
          "abbr": "POR",
          "group": "K",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "13",
          "name": "Croatia",
          "abbr": "CRO",
          "group": "L",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "35",
          "name": "Portugal",
          "abbr": "POR",
          "group": "K",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.6917125
    },
    {
      "match_id": "87",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 13,
      "left_label": "ESP",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "41",
          "name": "Spain",
          "abbr": "ESP",
          "group": "H",
          "fifa_rank": 2
        }
      },
      "right_label": "AUT",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "4",
          "name": "Austria",
          "abbr": "AUT",
          "group": "J",
          "fifa_rank": 24
        }
      },
      "description": "Spain vs Austria",
      "odds_fixture_id": "87",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "41",
          "name": "Spain",
          "abbr": "ESP",
          "group": "H",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "4",
          "name": "Austria",
          "abbr": "AUT",
          "group": "J",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "41",
          "name": "Spain",
          "abbr": "ESP",
          "group": "H",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.829480670519
    },
    {
      "match_id": "86",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 14,
      "left_label": "COL",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "10",
          "name": "Colombia",
          "abbr": "COL",
          "group": "K",
          "fifa_rank": 13
        }
      },
      "right_label": "GHA",
      "right_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
          "team_id": "21",
          "name": "Ghana",
          "abbr": "GHA",
          "group": "L",
          "fifa_rank": 73
        }
      },
      "description": "Colombia vs Ghana",
      "odds_fixture_id": "86",
      "left_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "10",
          "name": "Colombia",
          "abbr": "COL",
          "group": "K",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "right_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "21",
          "name": "Ghana",
          "abbr": "GHA",
          "group": "L",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_candidates": [
        {
          "team_id": "10",
          "name": "Colombia",
          "abbr": "COL",
          "group": "K",
          "probability": 1.0
        }
      ],
      "winner_odds_probability": 0.774805
    },
    {
      "match_id": "88",
      "round": "round_of_32",
      "order": 15,
      "left_label": "SUI",
      "left_source": {
        "type": "fixed",
        "team": {
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}