Fixture 73 · MD4 · 2026-06-28 19:00

South Africa vs Canada

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.41 combined

Actual goals 1 South Africa 0-1 Canada

Opportunity score 40.34 combined

South Africa 16.01 team score

Canada 24.33 team score

Status Complete South Africa 0-1 Canada

South Africa

Score 16.01 weighted

xG 0.84

CS 22.4%

xGC 1.57

SOT 2.85

YC 2.06

Canada

Score 24.33 weighted

xG 1.57

CS 46.9%

xGC 0.84

SOT 5.33

YC 1.66

South Africa expected goals

0 Actual43.2%

1 36.3%

2 15.2%

3 4.3%

4 0.9%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Canada expected goals

0 20.8%

1 Actual32.7%

2 25.6%

3 13.4%

4 5.3%

5 1.7%

6+ 0.6%

South Africa goals conceded

0 20.8%

1 32.7%

2 25.6%

3 13.4%

4 5.3%

5 1.7%

6+ 0.6%

Canada goals conceded

0 43.2%

1 36.3%

2 15.2%

3 4.3%

4 0.9%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

South Africa scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.84	56.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.76	53.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.22	22.4%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.57	79.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.76	97.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.85	94.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	20.22	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.62	99.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	2.06	87.4%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.8%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.1%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	7.1%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Canada scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.57	79.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.41	75.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.47	46.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	0.84	56.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.01	86.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.33	99.5%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	10.82	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.63	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.66	81.0%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	3.8%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box