Fixture 104 · MD8 · 2026-07-19 19:00

Spain vs Argentina

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.44 combined

Actual goals 1 Spain 1-0 Argentina

Opportunity score 40.68 combined

Spain 22.10 team score

Argentina 18.58 team score

Status Complete Spain 1-0 Argentina

Spain

Score 22.10 weighted

xG 1.37

CS 35.9%

xGC 1.07

SOT 4.50

YC 1.71

Argentina

Score 18.58 weighted

xG 1.07

CS 27.8%

xGC 1.37

SOT 3.51

YC 2.13

Spain expected goals

0 25.4%

1 Actual34.8%

2 23.8%

3 10.9%

4 3.7%

5 1.0%

6+ 0.3%

Argentina expected goals

0 Actual34.3%

1 36.7%

2 19.6%

3 7.0%

4 1.9%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Spain goals conceded

0 34.3%

1 36.7%

2 19.6%

3 7.0%

4 1.9%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Argentina goals conceded

0 25.4%

1 34.8%

2 23.8%

3 10.9%

4 3.7%

5 1.0%

6+ 0.3%

Spain scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.37	74.6%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.23	70.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.36	35.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.07	65.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.44	91.3%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.50	98.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	14.31	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	7.53	99.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.71	81.9%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.4%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.16	14.5%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.12	11.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.1%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	4.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.3%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Argentina scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.07	65.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.96	61.8%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.28	27.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.37	74.6%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.13	95.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.51	97.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.32	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.88	99.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	2.13	88.2%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.9%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.12	11.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.16	14.5%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.6%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box