Fixture 103 · MD8 · 2026-07-18 21:00

France vs England

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.50 combined

Actual goals 10 France 4-6 England

Opportunity score 52.94 combined

France 29.76 team score

England 23.18 team score

Status Complete France 4-6 England

France

Score 29.76 weighted

xG 2.04

CS 25.3%

xGC 1.46

SOT 5.80

YC 1.33

England

Score 23.18 weighted

xG 1.46

CS 14.8%

xGC 2.04

SOT 4.13

YC 1.33

France expected goals

0 12.9%

1 26.4%

2 27.1%

3 18.5%

4 Actual9.5%

5 3.9%

6+ 1.8%

England expected goals

0 23.2%

1 33.9%

2 24.8%

3 12.0%

4 4.4%

5 1.3%

6+ Actual0.4%

France goals conceded

0 23.2%

1 33.9%

2 24.8%

3 12.0%

4 4.4%

5 1.3%

6+ 0.4%

England goals conceded

0 12.9%

1 26.4%

2 27.1%

3 18.5%

4 9.5%

5 3.9%

6+ 1.8%

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.04	87.1%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.84	84.2%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.25	25.3%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.46	76.8%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.67	93.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.80	99.7%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	13.14	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	11.27	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.33	73.6%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.16	15.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.12	11.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

England scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.46	76.8%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.31	73.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.15	14.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	2.04	87.1%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.75	97.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.13	98.4%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.45	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.03	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.33	73.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.12	11.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.16	15.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	6.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box