Fixture 101 · MD7 · 2026-07-14 19:00

France vs Spain

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.80 combined

Actual goals 2 France 0-2 Spain

Opportunity score 45.78 combined

France 23.69 team score

Spain 22.09 team score

Status Complete France 0-2 Spain

France

Score 23.69 weighted

xG 1.48

CS 27.8%

xGC 1.32

SOT 5.01

YC 1.64

Spain

Score 22.09 weighted

xG 1.32

CS 25.5%

xGC 1.48

SOT 4.47

YC 1.61

France expected goals

0 Actual22.8%

1 33.7%

2 24.9%

3 12.3%

4 4.6%

5 1.3%

6+ 0.4%

Spain expected goals

0 26.7%

1 35.3%

2 Actual23.3%

3 10.2%

4 3.4%

5 0.9%

6+ 0.2%

France goals conceded

0 26.7%

1 35.3%

2 23.3%

3 10.2%

4 3.4%

5 0.9%

6+ 0.2%

Spain goals conceded

0 22.8%

1 33.7%

2 24.9%

3 12.3%

4 4.6%

5 1.3%

6+ 0.4%

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.48	77.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.33	73.6%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.28	27.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.32	73.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.15	95.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.01	99.3%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	15.47	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.14	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.64	80.6%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.15	13.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.13	12.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Spain scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.32	73.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.19	69.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.26	25.5%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.48	77.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.53	97.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.47	98.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	17.35	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	7.26	99.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.61	80.0%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.13	12.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.15	13.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box