Fixture 99 · MD6 · 2026-07-10 19:00

Spain vs Belgium

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.94 combined

Actual goals 3 Spain 2-1 Belgium

Opportunity score 47.66 combined

Spain 29.12 team score

Belgium 18.54 team score

Status Complete Spain 2-1 Belgium

Spain

Score 29.12 weighted

xG 1.94

CS 40.1%

xGC 1.00

SOT 6.00

YC 1.25

Belgium

Score 18.54 weighted

xG 1.00

CS 16.7%

xGC 1.94

SOT 3.08

YC 1.52

Spain expected goals

0 14.2%

1 27.7%

2 Actual27.0%

3 17.6%

4 8.6%

5 3.3%

6+ 1.5%

Belgium expected goals

0 36.8%

1 Actual36.8%

2 18.4%

3 6.1%

4 1.5%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.1%

Spain goals conceded

0 36.8%

1 36.8%

2 18.4%

3 6.1%

4 1.5%

5 0.3%

6+ 0.1%

Belgium goals conceded

0 14.2%

1 27.7%

2 27.0%

3 17.6%

4 8.6%

5 3.3%

6+ 1.5%

Spain scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.94	85.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.75	82.7%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.40	40.1%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.00	63.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.08	87.5%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	6.00	99.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	11.21	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	10.72	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.25	71.3%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.9%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.09	9.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.6%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	3.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.9%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Belgium scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.00	63.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.90	59.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.17	16.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.94	85.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.05	98.3%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.08	95.4%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	21.86	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.50	99.6%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.52	78.1%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.09	9.1%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.1%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.08	7.4%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.0%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box