Fixture 94 · MD5 · 2026-07-06 19:00

Portugal vs Spain

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.87 combined

Actual goals 1 Portugal 0-1 Spain

Opportunity score 45.70 combined

Portugal 19.66 team score

Spain 26.04 team score

Status Complete Portugal 0-1 Spain

Portugal

Score 19.66 weighted

xG 1.16

CS 19.8%

xGC 1.71

SOT 3.54

YC 1.71

Spain

Score 26.04 weighted

xG 1.71

CS 33.7%

xGC 1.16

SOT 5.22

YC 1.36

Portugal expected goals

0 Actual31.3%

1 36.4%

2 21.1%

3 8.2%

4 2.4%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Spain expected goals

0 18.1%

1 Actual30.9%

2 26.4%

3 15.1%

4 6.4%

5 2.2%

6+ 0.8%

Portugal goals conceded

0 18.1%

1 30.9%

2 26.4%

3 15.1%

4 6.4%

5 2.2%

6+ 0.8%

Spain goals conceded

0 31.3%

1 36.4%

2 21.1%

3 8.2%

4 2.4%

5 0.5%

6+ 0.1%

Portugal scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.16	68.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.04	64.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.20	19.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.71	81.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.51	97.0%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.54	97.1%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.88	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.38	99.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.71	81.9%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.4%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.17	15.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	6.6%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Spain scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.71	81.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.54	78.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.34	33.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.16	68.7%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.38	90.8%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.22	99.5%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	12.80	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	9.40	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.36	74.3%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.17	15.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	4.5%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box