Fixture 93 · MD5 · 2026-07-07 00:00

USA vs Belgium

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.09 combined

Actual goals 5 USA 1-4 Belgium

Opportunity score 47.56 combined

USA 24.16 team score

Belgium 23.40 team score

Status Complete USA 1-4 Belgium

USA

Score 24.16 weighted

xG 1.58

CS 23.8%

xGC 1.51

SOT 4.59

YC 1.66

Belgium

Score 23.40 weighted

xG 1.51

CS 22.5%

xGC 1.58

SOT 4.39

YC 1.66

USA expected goals

0 20.6%

1 Actual32.5%

2 25.7%

3 13.5%

4 5.3%

5 1.7%

6+ 0.6%

Belgium expected goals

0 22.1%

1 33.4%

2 25.2%

3 12.7%

4 Actual4.8%

5 1.4%

6+ 0.5%

USA goals conceded

0 22.1%

1 33.4%

2 25.2%

3 12.7%

4 4.8%

5 1.4%

6+ 0.5%

Belgium goals conceded

0 20.6%

1 32.5%

2 25.7%

3 13.5%

4 5.3%

5 1.7%

6+ 0.6%

USA scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.58	79.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.42	75.9%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.24	23.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.51	77.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.88	94.4%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.59	99.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	15.48	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.69	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.66	81.0%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.14	13.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.14	12.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.3%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.0%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Belgium scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.51	77.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.36	74.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.23	22.5%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.58	79.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.01	95.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.39	98.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	16.19	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.30	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.66	81.0%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.14	12.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.14	13.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.4%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.5%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.9%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box