Fixture 92 · MD5 · 2026-07-06 00:00

Mexico vs England

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.30 combined

Actual goals 5 Mexico 2-3 England

Opportunity score 39.20 combined

Mexico 18.98 team score

England 20.22 team score

Status Complete Mexico 2-3 England

Mexico

Score 18.98 weighted

xG 1.09

CS 31.6%

xGC 1.21

SOT 3.66

YC 1.51

England

Score 20.22 weighted

xG 1.21

CS 34.8%

xGC 1.09

SOT 4.06

YC 1.52

Mexico expected goals

0 33.6%

1 36.6%

2 Actual20.0%

3 7.3%

4 2.0%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

England expected goals

0 29.8%

1 36.1%

2 21.8%

3 Actual8.8%

4 2.7%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.2%

Mexico goals conceded

0 29.8%

1 36.1%

2 21.8%

3 8.8%

4 2.7%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.2%

England goals conceded

0 33.6%

1 36.6%

2 20.0%

3 7.3%

4 2.0%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Mexico scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.09	66.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.98	62.5%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.32	31.6%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.21	70.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.85	94.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.66	97.4%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	15.98	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.99	99.8%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.51	77.9%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.13	12.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.15	13.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.06	5.6%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

England scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.21	70.2%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.09	66.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.35	34.8%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.09	66.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.57	92.3%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.06	98.3%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	14.39	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.65	99.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.52	78.1%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.15	13.7%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.13	12.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box