Fixture 91 · MD5 · 2026-07-04 21:00

Paraguay vs France

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.07 combined

Actual goals 1 Paraguay 0-1 France

Opportunity score 50.83 combined

Paraguay 14.41 team score

France 36.42 team score

Status Complete Paraguay 0-1 France

Paraguay

Score 14.41 weighted

xG 0.57

CS 9.6%

xGC 2.50

SOT 1.78

YC 1.82

France

Score 36.42 weighted

xG 2.50

CS 58.9%

xGC 0.57

SOT 7.82

YC 0.77

Paraguay expected goals

0 Actual56.6%

1 32.2%

2 9.2%

3 1.7%

4 0.2%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

France expected goals

0 8.0%

1 Actual20.3%

2 25.5%

3 21.5%

4 13.5%

5 6.8%

6+ 4.3%

Paraguay goals conceded

0 8.0%

1 20.3%

2 25.5%

3 21.5%

4 13.5%

5 6.8%

6+ 4.3%

France goals conceded

0 56.6%

1 32.2%

2 9.2%

3 1.7%

4 0.2%

5 0.0%

6+ 0.0%

Paraguay scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.57	43.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	0.51	40.1%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.10	9.6%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	2.50	92.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	5.32	99.5%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	1.78	83.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	28.71	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	3.14	95.7%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.82	83.8%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.5%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.05	5.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.23	20.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	3.8%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.10	9.3%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.01	1.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.50	92.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	2.26	89.6%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.59	58.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	0.57	43.4%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.21	70.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	7.82	100.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	6.56	99.9%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	13.80	100.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	0.77	53.7%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.04	4.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.23	20.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	0.9%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.02	2.2%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.05	4.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box