Fixture 85 · MD4 · 2026-07-02 23:00

Portugal vs Croatia

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.97 combined

Actual goals 3 Portugal 2-1 Croatia

Opportunity score 45.72 combined

Portugal 27.93 team score

Croatia 17.79 team score

Status Complete Portugal 2-1 Croatia

Portugal

Score 27.93 weighted

xG 1.92

CS 36.9%

xGC 1.05

SOT 5.47

YC 1.21

Croatia

Score 17.79 weighted

xG 1.05

CS 16.7%

xGC 1.92

SOT 2.99

YC 1.53

Portugal expected goals

0 14.7%

1 28.1%

2 Actual27.0%

3 17.3%

4 8.3%

5 3.2%

6+ 1.4%

Croatia expected goals

0 35.0%

1 Actual36.7%

2 19.3%

3 6.8%

4 1.8%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Portugal goals conceded

0 35.0%

1 36.7%

2 19.3%

3 6.8%

4 1.8%

5 0.4%

6+ 0.1%

Croatia goals conceded

0 14.7%

1 28.1%

2 27.0%

3 17.3%

4 8.3%

5 3.2%

6+ 1.4%

Portugal scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.92	85.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.73	82.2%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.37	36.9%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.05	65.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.94	85.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.47	99.6%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	10.09	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	10.56	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.21	70.2%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.8%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.3%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Croatia scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.05	65.0%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.94	61.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.17	16.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.92	85.3%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.55	97.1%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.99	95.0%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.46	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	5.77	99.7%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.53	78.3%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.4%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.08	7.8%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box