Fixture 84 · MD4 · 2026-07-01 20:00

Belgium vs Senegal

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.80 combined

Actual goals 5 Belgium 3-2 Senegal

Opportunity score 44.69 combined

Belgium 24.67 team score

Senegal 20.02 team score

Status Complete Belgium 3-2 Senegal

Belgium

Score 24.67 weighted

xG 1.60

CS 32.6%

xGC 1.20

SOT 4.75

YC 1.45

Senegal

Score 20.02 weighted

xG 1.20

CS 22.4%

xGC 1.60

SOT 3.56

YC 1.78

Belgium expected goals

0 20.2%

1 32.3%

2 25.8%

3 Actual13.8%

4 5.5%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Senegal expected goals

0 30.1%

1 36.1%

2 Actual21.7%

3 8.7%

4 2.6%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.2%

Belgium goals conceded

0 30.1%

1 36.1%

2 21.7%

3 8.7%

4 2.6%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.2%

Senegal goals conceded

0 20.2%

1 32.3%

2 25.8%

3 13.8%

4 5.5%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Belgium scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.60	79.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.44	76.3%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.33	32.6%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	1.20	69.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.36	90.6%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.75	99.1%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	13.83	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.80	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.45	76.5%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.1%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.16	14.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.12	11.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	2.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	5.2%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	3.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Senegal scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.20	69.9%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	1.08	66.0%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.22	22.4%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.60	79.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.15	95.7%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.56	97.2%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	18.43	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.60	99.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.78	83.1%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.5%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.12	11.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.16	14.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	6.9%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.03	2.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box