Fixture 82 · MD4 · 2026-07-01 01:00

Mexico vs Ecuador

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.02 combined

Actual goals 2 Mexico 2-0 Ecuador

Opportunity score 37.90 combined

Mexico 20.75 team score

Ecuador 17.15 team score

Status Complete Mexico 2-0 Ecuador

Mexico

Score 20.75 weighted

xG 1.19

CS 45.9%

xGC 0.83

SOT 4.28

YC 1.71

Ecuador

Score 17.15 weighted

xG 0.83

CS 33.0%

xGC 1.19

SOT 2.99

YC 1.97

Mexico expected goals

0 30.4%

1 36.2%

2 Actual21.5%

3 8.5%

4 2.5%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.1%

Ecuador expected goals

0 Actual43.6%

1 36.2%

2 15.0%

3 4.2%

4 0.9%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Mexico goals conceded

0 43.6%

1 36.2%

2 15.0%

3 4.2%

4 0.9%

5 0.1%

6+ 0.0%

Ecuador goals conceded

0 30.4%

1 36.2%

2 21.5%

3 8.5%

4 2.5%

5 0.6%

6+ 0.1%

Mexico scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.19	69.6%	Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.07	65.7%	Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.46	45.9%	Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.83	56.4%	Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.16	88.4%	Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	4.28	98.6%	Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	15.05	100.0%	Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	6.54	99.9%	Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.71	81.9%	Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.4%	Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.16	15.2%	Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.11	10.9%	Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.9%	Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.05	4.9%	Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.5%	Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Ecuador scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.83	56.4%	Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.75	52.6%	Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.33	33.0%	Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.19	69.6%	Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	3.09	95.5%	Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.99	95.0%	Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	21.58	100.0%	Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.57	99.0%	Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.97	86.2%	Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.06	5.7%	Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.11	10.9%	Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.16	15.2%	Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	2.8%	Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.07	7.0%	Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.4%	Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box