Fixture 79 · MD4 · 2026-06-30 21:00

France vs Sweden

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 3.56 combined

Actual goals 3 France 3-0 Sweden

Opportunity score 54.31 combined

France 37.23 team score

Sweden 17.08 team score

Status Complete France 3-0 Sweden

France

Score 37.23 weighted

xG 2.66

CS 42.7%

xGC 0.90

SOT 7.10

YC 1.03

Sweden

Score 17.08 weighted

xG 0.90

CS 9.2%

xGC 2.66

SOT 2.38

YC 1.45

France expected goals

0 6.8%

1 18.3%

2 24.6%

3 Actual22.0%

4 14.8%

5 8.0%

6+ 5.6%

Sweden expected goals

0 Actual40.7%

1 36.6%

2 16.5%

3 4.9%

4 1.1%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

France goals conceded

0 40.7%

1 36.6%

2 16.5%

3 4.9%

4 1.1%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Sweden goals conceded

0 6.8%

1 18.3%

2 24.6%

3 22.0%

4 14.8%

5 8.0%

6+ 5.6%

France scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	2.66	93.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	2.40	91.1%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.43	42.7%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.90	59.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	1.48	77.3%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	7.10	99.9%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	8.28	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	14.68	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.03	64.3%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	4.6%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.21	18.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.07	6.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.01	1.2%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.03	3.4%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	4.4%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Sweden scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.90	59.3%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.81	55.5%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.09	9.2%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	2.66	93.2%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.43	98.8%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	2.38	90.8%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	24.72	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.95	99.3%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.45	76.5%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.1%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.07	6.8%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.21	18.9%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.04	3.5%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.10	9.7%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	1.5%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box