Fixture 74 · MD4 · 2026-06-29 17:00

Brazil vs Japan

Event probabilities index

Expected goals 2.46 combined

Actual goals 3 Brazil 2-1 Japan

Opportunity score 42.18 combined

Brazil 25.13 team score

Japan 17.05 team score

Status Complete Brazil 2-1 Japan

Brazil

Score 25.13 weighted

xG 1.60

CS 44.1%

xGC 0.86

SOT 5.62

YC 1.36

Japan

Score 17.05 weighted

xG 0.86

CS 23.2%

xGC 1.60

SOT 3.02

YC 1.64

Brazil expected goals

0 20.2%

1 32.3%

2 Actual25.8%

3 13.8%

4 5.5%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Japan expected goals

0 42.3%

1 Actual36.4%

2 15.6%

3 4.5%

4 1.0%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Brazil goals conceded

0 42.3%

1 36.4%

2 15.6%

3 4.5%

4 1.0%

5 0.2%

6+ 0.0%

Japan goals conceded

0 20.2%

1 32.3%

2 25.8%

3 13.8%

4 5.5%

5 1.8%

6+ 0.6%

Brazil scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	1.60	79.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Assists Attack	1.44	76.3%		Derived	Total - Home
Clean sheet Defence	0.44	44.1%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Home
Goals conceded Defence	0.86	57.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Goalkeeper saves Defence	2.16	88.5%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	5.62	99.6%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	11.19	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	8.80	100.0%		Derived	Total - Home
Yellow cards Risk	1.36	74.3%		Fitted	Home Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.0%		Derived	Home Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.18	16.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.02	1.7%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.04	4.4%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.04	3.8%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box

Japan scoring opportunities

Opportunity	Expected freq.	P >= 1	Distribution	Method	Source
Expected goals Attack	0.86	57.7%		Fitted	Total - Away
Assists Attack	0.77	53.9%		Derived	Total - Away
Clean sheet Defence	0.23	23.2%		Direct	Clean Sheet - Away
Goals conceded Defence	1.60	79.8%		Fitted	Total - Home
Goalkeeper saves Defence	4.02	98.2%		Derived	Total ShotOnGoal / opponent goal total
Shots on target Attack	3.02	95.1%		Fitted	Total ShotOnGoal
Tackles Defence	20.82	100.0%		Fitted	Total Tackles
Chances created Attack	4.73	99.1%		Derived	Total - Away
Yellow cards Risk	1.64	80.6%		Fitted	Away Team Yellow Cards
Red cards Risk	0.05	5.3%		Derived	Away Team Yellow Cards
Penalties won Attack	0.10	9.3%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties conceded Risk	0.18	16.6%		Derived	To Score A Penalty / To Miss A Penalty
Penalties saved Defence	0.03	3.0%		Derived	To Miss A Penalty
Own goals Risk	0.08	8.0%		Derived	Own Goal
Free-kick goals Attack	0.02	2.1%		Prior	Goal Method Outside the Box