{ "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-17T07:27:32.937452+00:00", "model_version": "player_role_v5_unified_source_weighting", "row_count": 6535, "active_row_count": 824, "fixture_count": 104, "knockout_fixture_count": 32, "player_count": 1489, "inputs": { "players": "data/model/player_projection_baseline.csv", "fixtures": "data/processed/fixtures_group_stage.csv", "actual_fixtures": "data/actuals/fifa_fantasy_fixture_results.csv", "set_piece_roles": "data/manual/player_set_piece_roles.csv", "api_player_matches": "data/processed/player_roles/api_football_player_matches.csv", "api_player_stats": "data/processed/player_roles/api_football_player_stats.csv", "api_injuries": "data/processed/player_roles/api_football_injuries.csv", "api_lineups": "data/processed/player_roles/api_football_lineups.csv", "actual_player_points_fallback": "data/actuals/fifa_fantasy_player_round_points.csv", "tournament_performance_signal": "data/model/player_tournament_performance_signal.csv" }, "probability_targets": { "starting_xi_by_position": { "GK": 1.0, "DEF": 4.0, "MID": 4.0, "FWD": 2.0 }, "appearance_by_position": { "GK": 1.05, "DEF": 4.85, "MID": 5.75, "FWD": 3.2 }, "sixty_minute_rate_if_starting": { "GK": 0.96, "DEF": 0.86, "MID": 0.78, "FWD": 0.76 } }, "event_weights": { "goal_share": { "power": 2.0, "positions": { "GK": 0.01, "DEF": 0.1, "MID": 0.48, "FWD": 0.95 } }, "assist_share": { "power": 1.7, "positions": { "GK": 0.01, "DEF": 0.18, "MID": 0.7, "FWD": 0.55 } }, "shot_share": { "power": 1.9, "positions": { "GK": 0.0, "DEF": 0.11, "MID": 0.52, "FWD": 0.95 } }, "chance_created_share": { "power": 1.6, "positions": { "GK": 0.0, "DEF": 0.16, "MID": 0.78, "FWD": 0.45 } }, "tackle_share": { "power": 1.0, "positions": { "GK": 0.0, "DEF": 0.88, "MID": 0.7, "FWD": 0.25 } }, "yellow_card_share": { "power": 0.8, "positions": { "GK": 0.18, "DEF": 0.9, "MID": 0.75, "FWD": 0.5 } }, "red_card_share": { "power": 0.8, "positions": { "GK": 0.12, "DEF": 0.95, "MID": 0.75, "FWD": 0.45 } }, "penalty_won_share": { "power": 1.6, "positions": { "GK": 0.0, "DEF": 0.08, "MID": 0.45, "FWD": 0.8 } }, "penalty_conceded_share": { "power": 0.9, "positions": { "GK": 0.3, "DEF": 0.82, "MID": 0.34, "FWD": 0.14 } }, "penalty_saved_share": { "power": 3.0, "positions": { "GK": 1.0, "DEF": 0.0, "MID": 0.0, "FWD": 0.0 } }, "goalkeeper_save_share": { "power": 3.0, "positions": { "GK": 1.0, "DEF": 0.0, "MID": 0.0, "FWD": 0.0 } }, "own_goal_share": { "power": 0.8, "positions": { "GK": 0.1, "DEF": 0.78, "MID": 0.24, "FWD": 0.08 } }, "free_kick_goal_share": { "power": 2.1, "positions": { "GK": 0.0, "DEF": 0.12, "MID": 0.76, "FWD": 0.34 } } }, "set_piece_model": { "input_rows": 0, "player_fixture_rows_with_set_piece_roles": 0, "event_boosts": { "penalty": { "goal_share": 1.8 }, "direct_free_kick": { "goal_share": 0.35, "free_kick_goal_share": 4.0 }, "corner_indirect": { "assist_share": 1.4, "chance_created_share": 1.6 } }, "rank_weights": { "1": 1.0, "2": 0.65, "3": 0.4, "4+": 0.25 } }, "role_signal_model": { "fantasy_signal": "price_percentile_within_position * log1p(percent_selected) / log1p(max_percent_selected).", "fantasy_source_weight": 1.0, "historical_source_weight": "Historical API-Football effective sample units after competition, season-age, and young-player weighting, capped below current tournament evidence.", "tournament_source_weight": "observed_team_rounds * 2.", "tournament_performance_source_weight": "current-tournament raw fantasy points source weight capped at 1.", "blend": "pre_injury_role_signal = weighted average of fantasy, historical starts/minutes, current-tournament starts/subs/DNPs, and current-tournament raw fantasy performance using source weights; role_signal = pre_injury_role_signal * injury_adjustment_factor.", "injury_adjustment_factor": 0.15 }, "historical_role_model": { "available": true, "match_rows": 1489, "matched_players": 1131, "player_stat_matches": 69, "injury_rows": 98, "active_injury_rows": 0, "api_injured_players": 0, "competition_weights": { "world_cup": 0.0, "world_cup_qualification": 1.0, "world_cup_qualifiers": 1.0, "intercontinental_playoffs": 0.9, "friendlies": 0.35, "other": 0.5 }, "reference_season": 2026, "fixture_age_half_life_years": 3.0, "young_player_age_threshold": 20.0, "young_player_sample_weight": 0.5, "source_weight_cap": 1.5, "source_weight_per_effective_sample": 1.0, "blend": "Historical evidence contributes to the unified role-signal weighted average as capped source_weight = min(age/competition/season weighted effective_sample_units, historical_source_weight_cap).", "api_role_signal": "0.62 * weighted historical lineup/start rate + 0.38 * weighted historical minutes-per-appearance rate.", "api_confidence": "historical_source_weight / (historical_source_weight + fantasy_source_weight), retained as a compact display/review metric rather than a blend cap.", "injury_adjustment": "Matched players with an API injury row or API player_injured flag have the unified pre-injury role signal multiplied by injury_adjustment_factor.", "injury_filter": "API-Football injury rows are fixture-specific; only rows with fixture_date on or after the build date are treated as active availability flags.", "review_flags": { "mostly_friendlies": "At least 75 percent of raw API appearances are friendlies.", "low_effective_sample": "Weighted historical starts/minutes produce fewer than two effective sample units.", "low_confidence_api_local_disagreement": "Historical role signal differs from fantasy signal by at least 0.25 with low confidence.", "high_standing_low_sample_downgrade": "High fantasy-standing player receives a lower historical signal from a low-confidence sample.", "gk_low_confidence_sample": "Goalkeeper role is informed by a low-confidence historical sample." }, "impact": { "matched_players": 102, "players_with_api_stats": 69, "api_injured_players": 0, "players_with_tournament_evidence": 103, "players_with_tournament_starts": 0, "players_with_tournament_performance_evidence": 103, "players_with_positive_tournament_performance": 87, "players_with_any_change": 103, "players_flagged_for_review": 49, "review_flag_counts": { "low_confidence_api_local_disagreement": 11, "low_effective_sample": 49, "mostly_friendlies": 9 }, "mean_abs_start_probability_delta": 0.007628950885039337, "max_abs_start_probability_delta": 0.595357267689, "top_start_probability_changes": [ { "player_id": "1431", "display_name": "Bradley Barcola", "squad_abbr": "FRA", "position": "MID", "old_role_signal": 0.311541886709, "new_role_signal": 0.111778705406, "old_start_probability": 0.915058542483, "new_start_probability": 0.319701274794, "old_appearance_probability": 0.99, "new_appearance_probability": 0.600592459114, "api_player_id": "161904", "api_player_name": "B. 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Olise", "api_appearances": 11.0, "api_lineups": 10.0, "api_minutes": 794.0, "api_start_rate": 0.909090909091, "api_minutes_per_appearance": 72.1818181818, "api_confidence": 0.512195121951, "api_sample_weight": 1.05, "api_effective_appearances": 1.4, "api_effective_lineups": 1.05, "api_effective_minutes": 81.9, "api_effective_sample_units": 1.05, "api_effective_start_rate": 0.75, "api_effective_minutes_per_appearance": 58.5, "api_competition_profile": "World Cup:7x0; Friendlies:4x0.35", "api_review_flags": "low_effective_sample", "api_injury_status": "", "api_injury_reason": "", "tournament_observed_rounds": 7.0, "tournament_starts": 0.0, "tournament_subs": 0.0, "tournament_dnp": 7.0, "tournament_start_rate": 0.0, "tournament_role_signal": 0.04, "tournament_sample_weight": 14.0, "tournament_adjustment_delta": -0.586144053752, "tournament_performance_actual_points": 35.0, "tournament_performance_signal": 1.0, "tournament_performance_source_weight": 1.0, "role_signal_delta": -0.647306981905, "start_probability_delta": 0.0, "appearance_probability_delta": 0.0 } ] } }, "tournament_role_model": { "available": true, "actual_player_rows": 3222, "source": "fifa_fantasy_actuals", "observed_team_rounds": 204, "players_with_observed_team_rounds": 103, "players_with_recorded_starts": 0, "source_weight_per_observed_team_round": 2.0, "signals": { "start": 0.95, "sub": 0.35, "dnp": 0.04 }, "blend": "Tournament evidence contributes to the same unified weighted average as source_weight = observed_team_rounds * source_weight_per_observed_team_round.", "dnp_inference": "A player is treated as DNP for a team-round when API-Football has a lineup for the team fixture but the player is not listed as a starter or substitute. FIFA fantasy actuals are only used as a fallback if lineup rows are unavailable." }, "tournament_performance_model": { "available": true, "source": "player_tournament_performance_signal", "rows": 1489, "players_with_observed_team_rounds": 103, "players_with_positive_points": 87, "source_weight_cap": 1.0, "signal": "actual_points_per_observed_round normalised by position p90 and capped at 1.0.", "blend": "Tournament performance contributes as a fourth source in the same weighted average. At two observed rounds it has weight 1.0, comparable to the fantasy prior.", "captaincy_and_boosters": "The source uses FIFA fantasy player roundPoints, which are raw per-player points and do not include manager captaincy or booster multipliers." }, "limitations": [ "Set-piece responsibility is only used when manually reviewed rows are present in the set-piece role input table.", "API-Football player matching is deterministic but heuristic; ambiguous and unmatched rows are not used by the role model.", "Historical API-Football starts and minutes are blended with competition, season-age, and player-age weighted source weights; friendlies are downweighted and current World Cup rows are excluded from history to avoid double-counting tournament lineups.", "API-Football injury rows are used when present, but zero returned rows does not prove every player is fully fit.", "Tournament starts/subs/DNPs are current-tournament evidence from API-Football lineup rows when available; after only one or two observed matches they should not be treated as a definitive depth chart.", "Tournament performance is a short-sample signal and can reward one-off goals, cards, or clean sheets; it is deliberately capped to fantasy-prior strength.", "Historical fixture-age weighting is currently season-level because the API-Football player statistics endpoint is aggregated by competition/season rather than per fixture.", "The fantasy heuristic prior is derived from fantasy price and selected percentage, not from direct lineup observations.", "Event responsibility shares are normalized within each team fixture and are not yet match-specific." ] }